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China Ascendant, Russia Weakened in Central Asia

For much of the post–Cold War period, Central Asia operated as a “managed condominium”—a geopolitical arrangement where Russia supplied the hard-security umbrella and China functioned as the dominant economic partner. The war in Ukraine has not broken this Sino-Russian partnership, but it has fundamentally altered its internal balance. The condominium has evolved into an asymmetric

Americans Divided Over Trump’s Iran Campaign

The American people are bitterly divided over the conflict in Iran. The US president, Donald Trump, won office in 2024 after campaigning on a message of “no new wars.” So the conflict that began with airstrikes conducted with the Israeli military in the early hours of February 28, and which has quickly spread to the

Buried Ambitions: Europe Postpones Its Industrial Reckoning

EU elite retreated to a Belgian castle on February 12 to formalize what other powers had long priced in: Europe is losing. Not a policy debate or a trade dispute, but the century itself. The get-together was billed as a consequential competitiveness summit. The outcome—pledging to address in 2027 an economic crisis now in its

Suspiciously Timed Bets Net Millions Before U.S. Strike on Iran

Photo: Yogonet Bettors on the prediction platform Polymarket made a killing with suspiciously timed wagers that the United States would attack Iran by February 28, the day President Donald Trump announced a bombing campaign against the Middle East nation. Bloomberg News reported that six accounts on Polymarket, all newly created in February, “made around $1 million in profit” by betting on

Make Africa Central to US‑India Indo‑Pacific Strategy

This article first appeared on Pacific Forum and is republished with permission. Read the original here. On May 30, 2018, US Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis announced that, “in recognition of the increasing connectivity, the Indian and Pacific Oceans, today we rename the US Pacific Command to US Indo-Pacific Command.” His logic was solid. China’s strategic competition

Reimagining UNHCR for Contemporary Refugee Realities

Sir, It would be preposterous of me to present to you my congratulations for your recent election to head the UN Refugee Agency. Conversely, having served 20 years with your organization I would like to share with you some observations, whatever their relevance. You have been elected to flog a dead horse. The  UN Refugee

The New Great Game: Three Powers Contest Global Influence

In the 19th century, Great Britain and Russia fought for control of the vast territory of Central Asia in a struggle known as the Great Game. Britain wanted to keep Russia away from India, its prime Asia colony, while Russia desired to expand its Tsarist empire southward. A similar contest is underway now, political analysts say

Trump Vows New Tariffs After Supreme Court Rejects IEEPA

The U.S. Supreme Court on Oct. 9, 2024. Photo: Jane Norman / States Newsroom WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump said Friday he plans to keep tariffs in place using different authorities after the Supreme Court ruled he exceeded his power under the International Economic Emergency Powers Act.  During the afternoon press conference in the White House briefing

Supreme Court Rejects Trump’s IEEPA Tariffs, Leaves Refunds Unclear

President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down his sweeping tariffs, in the James Brady Press Briefing Room at the White House in Washington, on Feb 20, 2026. Photo: Francis Chung / Politico The US Supreme Court on Friday ruled that President Donald Trump exceeded his authority when he invoked an emergency

Why Big Oil Is Avoiding Venezuela After Trump’s Seizure

Venezuela's oil isn't as attractive to foreign oil companies as it was before. Image: e-crow / Shutterstock via The Conversation After the US captured Venezuela’s president at the start of 2026, Donald Trump promised to “unleash” the country’s oil supply. He wanted companies to invest US$100 billion to get hold of it. Big Oil though
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