In the 19th century the original “Great Game” saw Britain and Russia vie for control of Central Asia. Today’s version is broader and more crowded: the United States faces a de facto coalition of China and Russia, each pursuing strategic advantage across multiple regions.
The terrain is wider than before. Central Asia remains important, but so do the Middle East, parts of the Americas, the Arctic and East Asia. The prize is not only territory but secure access to underground resources—oil, gas and rare earths—essential for industry and the digital economy.
National ambition drives the rivalry. In Washington, President Donald Trump emphasized a transactional, America-first approach rather than the democracy-exporting rationale of many earlier administrations. Vladimir Putin seeks to restore Russian influence and global stature, while Xi Jinping is steering China toward a “new era” intended to displace long-standing U.S. primacy.
This contest has frayed institutions that once restrained interstate escalation. Long-standing rules and norms are giving way to more openly competitive, interest-driven behavior. Each power is militarily capable; China also wields formidable economic leverage. Still, the United States benefits from a legacy of post–World War II economic ties and military basing that give it a reach many competitors lack.
The standoff over Iran illustrates how these dynamics play out. The Trump administration moved naval forces, including aircraft carriers and escorts, into the Persian Gulf region and adjacent seas while pressing Tehran to abandon nuclear ambitions and curb support for armed groups in Lebanon, Yemen and Gaza. Iran offered to negotiate on its nuclear program but rejected other demands and warned of reprisals against U.S. partners in the region.
Iran’s military posture had been weakened by prior Israeli strikes and a U.S. strike on an underground nuclear facility tied to Tehran’s support for Hamas after October 7, 2023. Moscow and Beijing’s relatively muted public reactions to those attacks exposed limits in Tehran’s strategic insulation; their restraint suggested the United States may have more operational freedom than assumed.
In response, Russia and China dispatched ships to the Strait of Hormuz to participate in naval drills with Iran, a move framed as ensuring safe navigation but also underscoring how much Moscow and Beijing have at stake. Russia supplies weapons to Iran while receiving Iranian-made drones used in Ukraine; China imports discounted Iranian oil—roughly 14 percent of its annual needs—and has linkages to Iranian infrastructure projects tied to the Belt and Road Initiative. A Tehran pivot toward the U.S. would imperil those ties.
Central Asia is another arena of competition. The U.S. sought contracts for rare earths and other minerals across Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan, partly to counter China’s Belt and Road influence. For Central Asian governments, U.S. engagement offers a counterbalance to Moscow and Beijing—especially given concerns about Russia’s aggressive foreign policy and pronouncements justifying intervention to protect ethnic compatriots abroad.
Latin America has also seen renewed U.S. activism. The Trump administration’s operation against Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro was portrayed as rolling back Russian and Chinese influence in the region and securing Venezuelan oil resources. Beijing had been purchasing large volumes of Venezuelan crude—about 400,000 barrels per day at discounted prices—and Moscow and Beijing provided political and military support to Caracas, making Venezuela a focal point of great-power rivalry. In Panama, U.S. pressure helped block a proposed takeover of canal-area ports by a firm tied to Hong Kong investors; the assets were subsequently sold to American firms amid accusations that the original deal risked giving China a strategic foothold.
Washington also tightened energy shipments from Venezuela to Cuba, intensifying Havana’s chronic shortages and encouraging negotiations over the U.S. embargo. Meanwhile, President Trump floated strategic ideas—from buying Greenland to more forceful Arctic posturing—after Russia and China stepped up activity in polar waters; Denmark rejected the purchase proposal and allied defense ties were emphasized.
East Asia remains perhaps the most dangerous theater. Beijing’s overarching objective is reunification with Taiwan, and since Xi Jinping became China’s top leader China has increasingly used “gray zone” tactics—sabotage, disinformation, economic pressure and stepped-up military probes—to coerce Taipei. Chinese military aircraft incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone rose sharply after 2020, and the 2024 election of Lai Ching-te prompted a massive exercise, dubbed Justice Mission 2025, simulating a blockade of the island.
Chinese rhetoric has hardened, and Beijing has asserted maritime claims, shadowed regional navies and maintained near-continuous coast guard patrols around disputed features such as the Senkaku Islands. Analysts warn that the combination of sustained pressure, large-scale drills and coordinated information and cyber operations increases the risk of miscalculation and possible direct conflict.
The United States has countered with arms sales, alliance-building and an expanded presence in regional partners. A proposed multibillion-dollar weapons package to Taiwan drew strong Chinese objections; South Korea, Japan and the Philippines have boosted defense spending and cooperation with Washington.
Across these theaters, three distinct playbooks are evident. The United States leans on global basing, alliances and economic sanctions to maintain influence. China favors economic statecraft, infrastructure ties, and calibrated coercion below the threshold of open war, while building military capacity. Russia relies on hard power, weapons exports, and strategic partnerships where it can exert leverage.
The interplay of those strategies—from the Persian Gulf and Central Asia to the Americas, the Arctic and the Taiwan Strait—is reshaping world politics. The competition is reviving great-power rivalry on a scale not seen in decades, driven by strategic resources, regional footholds and the desire to set the rules for the coming era.
