Bettors on the prediction market Polymarket made large profits from wagers placed shortly before the United States struck Iran, raising concerns about possible insider knowledge. Bloomberg reported that six accounts created in February “made around $1 million in profit” by betting that the U.S. would attack Iran by Feb. 28 — the same day President Donald Trump announced a bombing campaign.
According to the report, the accounts had only ever placed bets on the timing of U.S. military action. In some cases, shares were bought hours before explosions were reported in Tehran, sometimes for roughly a dime apiece. One account using the name Magamyman reportedly turned an about $87,000 stake into more than $515,000 by wagering the U.S. would strike Iran by Feb. 28.
The trades drew immediate scrutiny from lawmakers. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said on social media that it was “insane this is legal,” accusing people close to the administration of profiting from war and announcing he would push legislation to prohibit such trading. Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.) said prediction markets should not be used to benefit from advance knowledge of military actions and demanded greater transparency and oversight. Levin noted that Donald Trump Jr. serves on Polymarket’s advisory board and that a firm linked to him invested tens of millions in the platform last year; he also asserted that Justice Department and Commodity Futures Trading Commission probes into Polymarket were dropped after Trump took office.
There is no public evidence directly linking administration officials to the wagers, but the timing renewed worries about insider trading in an expanding set of prediction markets, including Polymarket and Kalshi. Bloomberg also noted that bettors recently profited on Polymarket from timely wagers about when the U.S. might remove Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Polymarket currently lists markets on a range of Iran-related outcomes, from when the country will have a new supreme leader to when a ceasefire with the U.S. might occur and whether the U.S. will invade Iran. TMZ reported that a group at a Washington, D.C., restaurant was overheard discussing a national secret hours before the bombing, suggesting that overheard conversations or casual group messages could enable wealthy individuals to place timely bets. Journalist David Bernstein pointed out that leaks fueling such trades could come from gossip or group texts rather than from a narrowly confined inner circle.
The episode has prompted calls for regulatory scrutiny of prediction platforms and renewed debate over whether markets that allow betting on geopolitical events should be restricted or subject to tighter oversight.
