Diplomacy to halt the widening Middle East war appeared to be faltering as Iran and the United States hardened their stances and military activity surged across the region.
Tehran has moved to formalize tighter control over the Strait of Hormuz, the strategically vital waterway that carries roughly one-fifth of global traded oil and gas in peacetime. Shipping analysts and industry sources say elements of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard are requiring vessel manifests, crew lists and routing information and conducting screenings that some describe as a “de facto toll booth regime.” Reports said at least two ships were recorded paying transit fees in Chinese yuan.
Washington in turn has increased its military posture. An amphibious assault strike group centered on USS Tripoli — carrying about 2,500 Marines — moved closer to the region, and roughly 1,000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne were ordered toward the Middle East. US planning reportedly includes a range of options to compel reopenings of the strait, including possible seizures of islands or oil facilities, though troop movements do not guarantee a ground invasion.
US Central Command chief Adm. Brad Cooper said in a video message that US forces had struck more than 10,000 targets since the campaign began on Feb. 28 and that those strikes had degraded a large share of Iran’s naval and weapons production capabilities. Cooper said the campaign had destroyed what he described as 92% of Iran’s largest ships and more than two-thirds of its missile, drone and naval production facilities, and added, “We’re not done yet,” describing an aim to dismantle Iran’s wider military apparatus.
The military escalation has produced broad regional and international fallout, from higher energy prices to travel restrictions and diplomatic moves. Key developments and reports include:
– Oil and markets: Prices rose amid uncertainty. Brent traded near USD 98.72 a barrel and US benchmark crude near USD 92.16 after Tehran rejected a US ceasefire plan and Washington delayed a threatened strike on Iranian power plants tied to reopening the strait.
– Israeli front: Sirens sounded across central Israel, including around Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and in the occupied West Bank, after Iran launched missiles toward Israel. An Israeli paramedic at a missile strike site in Kfar Qasim described chaos; five people evacuated from a home sustained mild injuries. Israeli authorities warned of further barrages. Hezbollah continued rocket fire in northern Israel overnight.
– UAE and Gulf states: Abu Dhabi said two people were killed and three wounded by shrapnel when a ballistic missile was intercepted. Sirens and live-fire alerts sounded across the Gulf and UAE as countries including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE reported intercepting incoming drones or missiles. Dubai phones also received a missile alert. Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. boss Sultan al-Jaber called Iran’s actions “economic terrorism,” accusing Tehran of weaponizing the strait and raising costs for consumers worldwide.
– Strikes in Iran: Activists reported heavy strikes around Isfahan, home to major air bases and facilities previously linked to Iran’s nuclear program.
– Iran’s domestic moves: Iranian state-linked media reported parliament is drafting a bill to codify control over the Strait of Hormuz and impose transit fees, saying Iran provides security for transit and can charge for that service. The strait is widely regarded as an international waterway, and such measures would face strong international opposition.
– UN and mediation: UN Secretary-General António Guterres named veteran diplomat Jean Arnault to lead mediation efforts on the conflict and its consequences and warned the war was at risk of spiraling “out of control.”
– Regional diplomacy and security: Five Gulf states and Jordan condemned attacks by Iran and affiliated groups, called on Iraq to stop militias launching strikes from its territory, and reaffirmed their right to self-defence. Kuwait said it arrested six people alleged to have links to Hezbollah over an alleged assassination plot and identified 14 others who had fled.
– Travel and economic effects: Australia temporarily restricted some holders of Iranian visitor visas from entering for six months over concerns they might be unable or unwilling to return amid the conflict. Thailand lifted a diesel price cap and cut subsidies, triggering roughly an 18% rise in fuel prices.
– Domestic rhetoric and politics: Iran’s foreign minister said no talks with the US were underway and that Iran does not plan negotiations to end the war. In the US, some lawmakers expressed resistance to deploying ground forces; Republican Rep. Nancy Mace opposed such a step after a classified briefing, while Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal stressed that some objectives might require a physical presence. At the Pentagon, remarks by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at a Christian service praying for “every round find its mark” drew attention and comment for invoking faith alongside wartime language.
– US leadership comments: President Donald Trump, speaking at a Republican fundraiser, said Iran remained interested in a deal but suggested Iranian leaders feared reprisals from their own population or from the US.
The situation remains fluid. Military operations, diplomatic initiatives and economic consequences are evolving rapidly, with the risk that further strikes, interdictions in the Strait of Hormuz or retaliation by proxies could deepen the crisis and expand its global effects.
