Think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) says China makes up roughly 16% of India’s total imports but a much larger share of its industrial supply chain, supplying about 30.8% of industrial goods. In 2025-26 India’s imports rose to USD 774.98 billion, of which USD 131.63 billion originated from China.
GTRI highlighted that this concentration leaves key sectors — including pharmaceuticals, electronics and clean energy — vulnerable to disruptions from geopolitical tensions or commercial disputes. Around 66% of India’s imports from China, equivalent to USD 82.6 billion, are concentrated in three categories: electronics, machinery and computers, and organic chemicals.
China supplies 43% of India’s electronics imports, 40% of machinery and computer imports, and 44% of organic chemicals imports. GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava noted that these are core inputs rather than discretionary purchases, pointing to deep dependence on Chinese components such as electronic parts, EV batteries, solar modules, active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and specialty chemicals. That reliance, he warned, keeps Indian supply chains tied to China even as India seeks to expand exports.
To reduce risk, GTRI recommended strengthening domestic production capacity in strategic sectors and diversifying import sources. As a practical target, the group urged limiting dependence on any single country to below 30% of imports in critical sectors.
Trade patterns with China have shifted toward production dependence: exports to China remain below FY2021 levels at USD 19.5 billion, while imports surged to USD 131.63 billion, widening India’s trade deficit with China to USD 112.1 billion in 2025-26.
