Islamabad — Pakistan’s population has climbed past 257 million, even as overall growth and fertility rates slow, increasing stress on already fragile infrastructure and the economy. According to US Census Bureau data cited by The Express Tribune, the annual growth rate has eased to 1.82%, and fertility has fallen to about 3.25 births per woman — lower than before but still well above the global replacement rate of 2.1. That level of fertility means population expansion is likely to continue for at least another generation.
Economists warn the current trajectory could overwhelm education, healthcare, housing and employment systems through the 2030s and 2040s. Pakistan’s large youth cohort could be an economic dividend, but without substantial job creation and skills development it risks becoming a socioeconomic burden. Life expectancy remains low at roughly 60.5 years, and under-five mortality is close to 65 deaths per 1,000 live births, underscoring ongoing deficits in maternal health, nutrition and primary care.
Population density has risen to about 333 people per square kilometre, intensifying pressure on land and public services. Cities are expanding in an unplanned manner, with overcrowded transport networks and growing informal settlements as infrastructure struggles to keep up with demographic shifts.
Regionally, countries such as India and Bangladesh have moved fertility closer to replacement levels and are beginning to capture demographic and economic benefits by sustained investment in education and health. Pakistan risks falling behind unless it prioritises human capital development.
Demographers and economists urge urgent policy action: greater investment in girls’ and women’s education, expanded access to reproductive and maternal healthcare, and coordinated efforts to generate decent jobs. These measures are presented as essential to turn the current youth bulge into a long-term advantage and to avoid an ageing population with underdeveloped human capital. (ANI)
