Karachi, April 23 — Pakistan’s consumer prices are expected to remain in double digits through April 2026 as persistent cost pressures, led by energy, keep overall inflation elevated, according to a report by Optimus Capital cited by The Express Tribune.
The report identifies energy inflation as the principal driver, with year-on-year energy costs forecast to approach 30 percent. Firm global oil prices, limited fiscal room for subsidies and the pass-through of higher fuel prices into the wider economy are cited as the main contributors.
Transport costs are singled out as particularly volatile. Rising fuel prices push up direct transport expenses and feed into secondary areas such as food logistics and distribution, amplifying inflationary pressures. While headline food inflation looks comparatively stable, it remains exposed to shocks. Analyst Maaz Azam noted that improvements in supply have been uneven and often short-lived, with seasonal swings, weak infrastructure and border disruptions creating localized shortages. These logistical problems can undermine farm incomes even when harvests are otherwise favourable.
The report also highlights overlapping domestic and external risks. Increased trade along the Iran–Central Asia corridor could gradually relieve some supply bottlenecks, but constrained operations at the Afghan border continue to disrupt commodity flows and produce episodic price distortions. Emerging weather risks, including the potential onset of El Niño conditions from mid-2026, pose threats to crop yields and water availability. Although reservoir levels are currently better than a year ago, climate uncertainty could still push food prices higher.
For April, Pakistan’s National Consumer Price Index is projected to rise around 10 percent year-on-year, keeping inflation in double digits. Monthly increases are expected to be driven primarily by fuel-related transport costs, with additional upward pressure from housing, utilities and LPG. Core inflation is also estimated at roughly 10 percent, reflecting entrenched structural factors such as wage adjustments and exchange-rate pass-through.
Looking ahead, the macroeconomic outlook is described as fragile. Recent external financing has offered temporary relief, but risks from global oil prices and imported inflation remain significant, the Express Tribune reports. (ANI)
(This article is based on a syndicated feed and published as received. The Tribune assumes no responsibility for its accuracy or completeness.)
