Former senior diplomat Surendra Kumar says both Iran and the United States appear tired and inclined toward a deal, even as each side seeks to preserve an image of strength. Kumar pointed to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s multi-city tour, which has included Islamabad, Doha and Moscow, as evidence that Tehran is serious about negotiations.
Kumar argued that both capitals are exhausted and want an agreement, but also want to convince their domestic audiences that they did not yield to pressure and retained core interests. He warned that Iran has suffered heavy damage and that an ongoing blockade is severely denting its revenues.
He also noted a perceptible softening in US language. Where earlier rhetoric included hard deadlines and threats, current signals are less confrontational, with offers of meetings or telephone contact replacing ultimatums. Kumar described this tonal shift as a positive sign that lowers tensions and creates space for diplomacy.
Kumar welcomed mediation by trusted regional partners such as Oman, saying their involvement matters and that Oman’s reception of Araghchi indicates support for third-party facilitation. He added that the recent decline in intense global focus on Iran gives mediators breathing room to work toward a mutually acceptable compromise, and he said he is cautiously optimistic that progress is underway. His hope is that the blockade will end and Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz will be resolved so normal trade and shipping can resume.
On the global oil picture, Kumar said China and Russia have benefited as major purchasers of Iranian oil, making Araghchi’s visit to Moscow particularly important. He observed that market demands often trump American warnings, and that while Russia and China depend on Iranian supplies, they are unlikely to mount an overt confrontation with the US on Iran.
Kumar stressed that Iran is seeking guarantees, recalling the earlier P5+1 framework and Tehran’s desire for protections against future attacks. He suggested Russia might back Iran up to a point but would stop short of a full-throated challenge to the United States. Overall, he assessed that negotiations appear to be moving toward a solution that could materialize soon.
Separately, Iranian state media reported that Araghchi delivered a clear list of Tehran’s red lines to be relayed to the United States during his visit to Pakistan.
