Danes began voting Tuesday in a parliamentary election that could hand Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen a third term, despite rising cost-of-living worries and political fallout from her public clash with U.S. President Donald Trump over Greenland.
Opinion polls point to the Social Democrats’ weakest performance since before World War Two. Many voters blame Frederiksen for not doing enough to protect Denmark’s Nordic welfare model; others say they are simply fatigued after nearly seven years under her leadership. Polling also shows the party recovering slightly from a low in December, moving from about 17% to roughly 21% in recent surveys.
Frederiksen, 48, called the vote months earlier than required, a step analysts say was intended to lock in a surge of support she received when Trump raised the idea of buying or controlling Greenland in January and suggested military options. That episode has since quieted into routine diplomacy and been eclipsed by domestic debates over a proposed wealth tax, asylum and immigration policy, and the cost of living.
On the campaign trail Frederiksen has stressed that her experienced, firm leadership is needed to manage relations with Washington and help coordinate Europe’s response to Russia’s war in Ukraine. “I know that sometimes I express myself a bit bluntly,” she told supporters, “but given the times we live in; it is perhaps very good that there are some things that cannot be misunderstood: that Russia should not be allowed to win or that Greenland is not for sale.”
A precarious outlook
Frederiksen, who has led Denmark since 2019 and was the first prime minister in more than four decades to build cross‑bloc support, now faces projections that her coalition will lose its parliamentary majority. Political analyst Hans Engell said the race is largely about her: while some voters see her as the right leader in a crisis, others view her as overly authoritative.
The Social Democrats’ tougher asylum stance in recent years alienated some on the left, but allied left‑wing parties are expected to hold steady. Still, forecasts suggest the left‑leaning bloc will fall short of the 90 seats needed for a majority in the 179‑seat Folketing, with projections near 85 seats. With the right fragmented, Frederiksen remains the favorite to try to form the next government as parties realign along more conventional left‑right lines.
A signature campaign pledge is a proposal to reintroduce a wealth tax to raise funds for education and welfare — an effort to signal a return toward traditional social democratic priorities.
Kingmakers and small margins
Denmark’s system does not require a government to command an outright majority, only that a majority of parliament does not oppose it. The right‑leaning bloc is led by Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen of the Liberal Party. The outcome could hinge on the stance of former prime minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, leader of the centrist Moderates and currently foreign minister, who is positioned as a potential kingmaker. Rasmussen’s choice to back Frederiksen or a right‑leaning coalition may determine who ultimately forms the next cabinet.
Twelve parties are contesting the election, and four seats reserved for representatives from Greenland and the Faroe Islands could prove decisive. Observers will watch the Greenland results for signs the governing coalition in Nuuk is weakening — a sensitive issue given ongoing discussions between Danish, Greenlandic and U.S. officials about the Arctic’s strategic future.
Voting opened at 0800 local time (0700 GMT) and polling stations close at 2000, with exit polls expected shortly afterward.
