Brazil’s coffee output is forecast to reach a record 66.2 million 60-kilogram bags in 2026, the National Supply Company (Conab) said in its first official crop outlook for the year. That estimate would be 17.1% higher than the 2025 harvest and exceed the previous national high of 63.1 million bags set in 2020. Conab attributed the rise to favorable weather, structural improvements in production and the country’s entry into the productive phase of its biennial cycle.
Area under cultivation is expected to expand about 4.1% to nearly 1.9 million hectares, while average yields are projected at 34.2 bags per hectare, a 12.4% increase from the prior season. Arabica, which is more sensitive to biennial swings, is forecast to show the largest gain at 44.1 million bags, up 23.3% year-on-year thanks to expanded planting, balanced weather and physiological recovery in a high-yield cycle. Conilon production is estimated at 22.1 million bags, a 6.4% increase and potentially a record for that variety.
State-level forecasts point to broad gains. Minas Gerais could produce about 32.4 million bags aided by improved rainfall during flowering; São Paulo around 5.5 million; Bahia roughly 4.6 million. Espírito Santo, Brazil’s main conilon producer, may reach about 19 million bags, a 9% rise. Rondônia is projected to climb 18.3% to 2.7 million bags, supported by wider adoption of more productive clonal plantings.
Despite a 17.1% fall in export volumes in 2025, Brazil posted record coffee export revenues of USD 16.1 billion last year, driven by a 57.2% rise in average prices. For 2026, prices are expected to remain firm as global consumption grows. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects world demand at 173.9 million bags and anticipates tight global stocks, a dynamic that should help sustain elevated international coffee prices.
