Former Indian foreign secretary and former ambassador to the United States Nirupama Rao says India-US relations are navigating a far more complicated strategic environment as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio visits New Delhi. In a written interview, Rao argued the timing of Rubio’s trip matters because it comes after the Trump‑Xi summit in Beijing and amid continuing hostilities between the US and Iran that have widened instability across West Asia.
Rubio’s May 23–26 itinerary — which includes Kolkata, Agra, Jaipur and New Delhi — coincides with minister-level meetings among Quad partners and critical energy talks, culminating in the Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting on May 26. Rao described the visit as an effort to reassure New Delhi on multiple fronts: the future shape of Indo‑Pacific strategy after the Trump‑Xi engagement, uninterrupted energy supplies from the Gulf, and the reliability of American strategic commitments.
She said the structural foundations of the India‑US partnership remain solid, but the relationship is entering a more complex and transactional phase. Economic disputes, such as tariff rows, have created friction at a time when India had expected strategic ties to withstand short‑term commercial disagreements. Those trade tensions, combined with Washington’s renewed outreach to China and Pakistan and the destabilising effects of the Iran conflict, have produced a cumulative challenge for bilateral ties.
The Gulf conflict, Rao added, sharpens India’s anxieties because millions of Indians work in the region, remittances are vital to the Indian economy, and energy imports from the Gulf remain significant. That exposure has pushed energy cooperation from a mainly commercial domain into a core geopolitical concern. Disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and the broader Iran crisis have reinforced India’s need to diversify and build resilient energy partnerships.
Rao explained that while US LNG and crude are increasingly strategic for India, the energy relationship is set to broaden beyond hydrocarbons to include nuclear energy, green hydrogen, battery technologies, critical minerals and robust supply chains. At the same time, New Delhi will insist on strategic flexibility: it may continue to source energy from a mix of suppliers — the United States, Russia, Gulf producers and others — as a matter of pragmatic energy security rather than ideological balancing.
She warned that the Iran conflict has accelerated fragmentation in global energy arrangements, prompting states to seek bilateral and flexible deals outside older multilateral frameworks. That makes US‑India energy cooperation both important and delicate.
On the Quad, Rao said the grouping’s original strategic drivers remain intact — concerns about Indo‑Pacific balance, maritime security, technology competition, supply‑chain resilience and critical minerals — and have in many respects intensified. Yet the current moment highlights both the Quad’s strengths and limits. With US political attention subject to rapid shifts depending on leadership priorities and global crises, regional partners are reassessing their expectations.
Rather than signaling decline, Rao suggested the Quad may evolve into a more decentralized, partner‑led architecture. Japan, Australia and India may increasingly take on ownership of the grouping, moving it from rhetoric toward practical cooperation in areas such as technology, maritime awareness, semiconductors, resilient supply chains, critical minerals and infrastructure. That model aligns well with India’s long preference for flexible coalitions over rigid alliances.
Rao stressed India’s awareness that American foreign policy can oscillate between strategic vision and tactical improvisation. Under the current US leadership, that unpredictability is particularly visible: tariffs, outreach to Beijing, engagement with Pakistan and escalation with Iran together create the impression of a transactional global posture. From New Delhi’s perspective, this underscores the value of strategic autonomy and the need to avoid overdependence on any single power.
India’s multi‑aligned approach — maintaining ties with Iran, Israel, Gulf states, Russia and the United States — provides diplomatic room for maneuver during crises and helps protect national interests. Rao noted Washington has grown more accepting of New Delhi’s multi‑alignment because India’s strategic value stems from its independent weight rather than bloc membership.
Ultimately, Rao said Rubio’s visit is important as a confidence‑building exercise at a time of systemic uncertainty. It signals an American recognition that India cannot be seen solely through trade metrics. For India, deepening ties with the United States remains strategically sensible, but New Delhi will continue to preserve multiple partnerships and strategic flexibility inside an increasingly multipolar world.
