Pakistan says it launched overnight air and ground strikes on major Afghan cities and border sectors, prompting both Islamabad and Kabul to report a sharp escalation in months-long clashes along their frontier. Pakistani officials described the operations as aimed at Taliban military posts, headquarters and ammunition depots and said they followed attacks on Pakistani border forces. Both sides have reported heavy losses; Pakistan’s defence minister called the confrontations an “open war.” Tensions rose after Pakistan began air strikes on militant targets in Afghanistan the previous weekend, following earlier clashes in October that killed dozens of soldiers. Those clashes led to a fragile ceasefire after mediation by Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
Why the two neighbours are at odds
Pakistan initially welcomed the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, but relations cooled when Islamabad found the new Afghan authorities less cooperative than expected. Pakistan accuses the Afghan authorities of sheltering Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) leaders and fighters and militants seeking independence in Balochistan. Monitoring group ACLED reports that militancy has increased each year since 2022, with more attacks by the TTP and Baloch insurgents. Kabul denies allowing its territory to be used for attacks on Pakistan.
The Afghan Taliban, for its part, accuses Pakistan of harbouring Islamic State fighters; Pakistan rejects that claim. Islamabad says the ceasefire collapsed because militant attacks originating from Afghan territory continued, and repeated clashes and border closures since then have disrupted trade and movement along the rugged frontier.
What triggered the latest round
Pakistani security sources say they possess “irrefutable evidence” that militants based in Afghanistan were behind a recent wave of attacks and suicide bombings targeting Pakistani military and police units. Islamabad has pointed to seven planned or successful attacks since late 2024 that it alleges were linked to militants operating from Afghan soil. One attack cited by Pakistani authorities killed 11 security personnel and two civilians in Bajaur district; Pakistan says it was carried out by an Afghan national and was claimed by the TTP.
Who are the TTP?
The TTP (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan) formed in 2007 by an alliance of militant groups active in northwest Pakistan. It has carried out attacks on markets, mosques, airports, military bases and police stations, and at times seized territory along the Afghan border and inside Pakistan, including the Swat Valley. The group was responsible for the 2012 attack on Malala Yousafzai. During the US-led campaign in Afghanistan, the TTP fought alongside Afghan Taliban forces and has hosted Afghan fighters within Pakistan. Islamabad has mounted repeated operations against the TTP with mixed results; a major offensive that concluded in 2016 significantly reduced attacks for a period.
What may come next
Analysts expect Pakistan to intensify its military campaign, while Kabul could respond with raids on border posts and cross-border guerrilla attacks. On paper the two sides are mismatched: Afghan Taliban forces are estimated at roughly 172,000 personnel—less than a third of Pakistan’s armed forces. The Taliban reportedly operate at least six aircraft and 23 helicopters, though their condition is unclear and they lack fighter jets or a conventional air force. By contrast, Pakistan’s armed forces number more than 600,000 active personnel, with over 6,000 armoured fighting vehicles and more than 400 combat aircraft, according to 2025 data from the International Institute for Strategic Studies; Pakistan is also a nuclear-armed state.
The situation remains fluid. Continued strikes, retaliations and border incidents could widen the confrontation and further disrupt civilian life and commerce along the frontier, while diplomatic efforts by regional mediators will be critical if a lasting de-escalation is to be achieved.
