The US Director of National Intelligence’s annual threat assessment warns that ties between India and Pakistan continue to pose a risk of nuclear escalation. The report says past conflicts between the two nuclear-armed states create conditions in which crises could spiral, and it notes that last year’s confrontation was calmed in part by intervention from US President Donald Trump.
India’s Ministry of External Affairs reacted to the report by accusing Pakistan of running clandestine nuclear operations, saying the assessment highlights Pakistan’s history of covert proliferation and the dangers such activities present.
The assessment stresses that neither New Delhi nor Islamabad seeks a return to open war, but it cautions that terrorist attacks or other incidents could act as catalysts for wider confrontation. As an example, the report cites a terrorist attack near Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir last year as the kind of event that can trigger broader crisis dynamics, while stopping short of assigning state sponsorship for cross-border terrorism.
On military capabilities, the report documents developments in both countries’ nuclear delivery systems. It says India is developing new, longer-range systems, while Pakistan is pursuing ever more sophisticated missile technology that could eventually enable strikes beyond South Asia. The assessment expresses concern that Pakistan may be working toward intercontinental ballistic missile capabilities, generally defined as ranges exceeding 5,500 km.
More broadly, the report warns that states with weapons of mass destruction capabilities are modernizing, expanding, and testing delivery systems, and that dual-use technologies complicate efforts to detect emerging programs and measure developmental progress.
Separately, the assessment addresses illicit drug production and trafficking. It identifies China and India as continued primary source countries for illicit fentanyl precursor chemicals and for supplies such as pill‑pressing equipment, while noting some improvements. The report references an October 2025 meeting in Busan between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, after which China agreed to curb precursor shipments to North America; that commitment led to an industry advisory and new export‑licensing rules for certain precursors.
India has stepped up counternarcotics efforts over the past year. In January 2026, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other Indian officials signaled willingness to deepen cooperation with the United States on counternarcotics work. Nonetheless, the assessment says Mexico‑based traffickers continue to evade international controls through mislabelled shipments and purchases of unregulated chemicals.
