Amritsar (Punjab) [India], April 29 — Navdeep Singh Suri, former Indian ambassador to the UAE, said the United Arab Emirates’ decision to withdraw from OPEC was expected by observers who have followed the region. Suri traces the dissatisfaction back to 2021, when the UAE’s official quota was set at 2.7 million barrels per day despite having greater production capacity. He noted that even then the UAE had signaled unease with quota cuts and the prevailing arrangements within OPEC.
Suri described the move as significant but not surprising. Leaving OPEC and OPEC+ will, he said, give the UAE greater strategic autonomy and the flexibility to adjust output more nimbly in response to market needs. The UAE joined OPEC in 1967, before the federation was formally created, and its departure reflects a desire to manage production without the constraints of the cartel’s quota system.
The timing of the announcement, made during a GCC summit in Riyadh, may have been tactical, Suri added, but the choice had been under internal consideration for some time. He argued the UAE is preparing for a possible global oil shortfall and wants reserve capacity ready to raise production once the Strait of Hormuz reopens or if supply conditions warrant it.
Beyond market strategy, Suri highlighted security concerns as a factor. He said the UAE has been targeted by nearly 3,000 missiles, rockets, drones and other projectiles, and expressed disappointment that some Gulf neighbours were not more forceful in condemning or supporting the UAE over Iranian-linked attacks. He referenced comments by Dr. Anwar Gargash, the president’s diplomatic adviser, that Abu Dhabi is reassessing which partners actively stand with it and which remain bystanders.
Suri also explained how the decision ties into the UAE’s broader economic plans. As a low-cost producer, the UAE intends to monetize its hydrocarbon resources to fund large non-oil ambitions — including investments in artificial intelligence, data centres, semiconductors, new free zones and expanded trade platforms. Greater control over production will help align oil revenue flows with those strategic priorities.
On implications for India, Suri saw potential advantages. He noted the close India–UAE relationship and recalled his own work while ambassador (2016–2019) to deepen energy ties — negotiating India’s first oil concession in Lower Zakum, facilitating later Abu Dhabi concessions, and setting up strategic petroleum reserves at Padur and Mangalore. He suggested India could benefit in two ways: higher UAE output after hostilities ease could help stabilise global oil prices, and the special bilateral relationship might allow New Delhi to secure direct energy deals that were harder to negotiate when the UAE was constrained by OPEC quota rules.
The UAE framed its exit as prioritising “national interests,” a decision that undercuts OPEC and OPEC+ as the world faces energy market disruption amid regional tensions tied to the broader conflict involving the US, Israel and Iran, media reports said. Observers will be watching how quickly Abu Dhabi acts to raise or vary production and how that shift affects both regional diplomacy and the global oil market.
(This report is based on a syndicated feed and was published as received.)
