U.S. officials told President Trump that military strikes on Iran could prompt Tehran to retaliate against U.S. partners in the Gulf — a possibility he later described as a surprise, according to a U.S. official and two people familiar with intelligence briefings. The sources, who spoke anonymously because the briefings were classified, said pre-war assessments did not treat such retaliation as certain but listed it among potential outcomes.
At a Kennedy Center board meeting held at the White House, Trump said Iran’s subsequent attacks on Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait were unexpected. “They (Iran) weren’t supposed to go after all these other countries in the Middle East,” he said. “Nobody expected that. We were shocked.”
Those remarks mirrored other administration claims that have not been independently corroborated by U.S. intelligence reporting — including assertions that Iran was close to fielding a missile capable of striking the U.S. mainland and that Tehran would need just weeks to assemble a nuclear weapon and then use it. Such claims, and concerns about an imminent threat to U.S. forces in the region, were cited by Trump and senior aides in justification for joining Israel’s air campaign against Iran on Feb. 28.
Sources also said Trump had been briefed in advance that Tehran might try to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical choke point for global energy flows.
In the two weeks since the strikes began, Iranian drones and missiles have struck targets across the Gulf states, including U.S. military bases and an Emirates facility hosting French forces, as well as civilian infrastructure such as hotels, airports and energy installations. Iran has effectively halted much shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a route for roughly 20% of global oil exports, contributing to a sharp rise in energy prices.
Democratic members of Congress who attended administration briefings last week said they were not told of any imminently actionable threat that required immediate U.S. and Israeli military action.
The White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment, and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.
A U.S. official said one key warning given to the president was that striking Iran could spark a wider regional war, including direct Iranian strikes on Gulf capitals — a risk heightened if Tehran concluded those governments were condoning or aiding U.S. attacks. When asked in the Oval Office at a signing event whether he had been briefed about the risk of Iran striking Gulf states, Trump replied, “Nobody, nobody, no, no, no. The greatest experts, nobody thought they were going to hit.”
A second source said the intelligence community had evaluated that Israel’s plan to carry out strikes aimed at killing senior Iranian leaders would likely provoke retaliation against U.S. military and diplomatic facilities. The administration did not order embassy staff departures from several regional posts until after the air campaign began. Intelligence officials also warned that Iran “could” expand its reprisals to include American allies in the region, the source said.
