Around 90 vessels, including oil tankers, have transited the Strait of Hormuz since the outbreak of the war, and Iran appears to be sustaining sizable crude exports even as much commercial traffic has been effectively halted, maritime and trade monitors report.
The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic chokepoint that carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s crude. After about 20 ships were attacked early in the conflict, most commercial passage through the waterway was halted. Still, analysts say Iran has managed to move oil and keep export channels functioning for itself and for a narrow set of other shipments.
A significant share of recent movements were so-called “dark” transits—voyages intended to evade sanctions and international oversight and likely linked to Iran—according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence. More recently, however, vessels tied to India and Pakistan have also passed through after diplomatic engagement between those governments and Tehran.
Market-tracking firm Kpler estimates Iran exported more than 16 million barrels of crude since the start of March, with China reported as the largest buyer amid Western sanctions. Kpler trade risk analyst Ana Subasic pointed to the country’s “continued resilience” in export volumes. Consulting firm Reddal’s Kun Cao added that Iran has both profited from these sales and “preserved its own export artery” by maintaining control over the chokepoint.
Maritime traffic statistics broadly mirror those export estimates. Lloyd’s List Intelligence reported at least 89 ships transited the strait between March 1 and 15, including 16 oil tankers. That flow is down sharply from the roughly 100–135 daily passages seen before the war. More than one-fifth of the recent vessels were believed to be Iran-affiliated; others carried links to China, Greece and other countries.
Specific movements highlighted by observers included the Pakistan-flagged crude tanker Karachi, controlled by Pakistan National Shipping Corp., which reportedly passed through the strait. Pakistan Port Trust declined to confirm the route but said the tanker was en route to Pakistan. Two India-flagged LPG carriers, Shivalik and Nanda Devi—owned by the state-run Shipping Corp. of India—also transited around March 13–14. LPG is a key cooking fuel in India, and Indian foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar told the Financial Times the vessels were allowed to pass after talks with Iran. Iraq, too, was reported to be negotiating transit arrangements for its tankers.
Lloyd’s List editor-in-chief Richard Meade suggested some transits likely involved “at least some level of diplomatic intervention,” and that Iran may have “effectively created a safe corridor” by letting ships pass close to its coast. Earlier MarineTraffic analysis found vessels declaring Chinese links or all-Chinese crews to reduce risk, leveraging Beijing’s closer ties with Tehran.
The conflict has pushed crude prices above USD 100 a barrel, up more than 40% since it began. Washington urged allies to deploy warships to reopen the strait and lower prices. At the same time, US officials said they were allowing some Iranian tankers to cross the strait to help stabilise markets. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that “the Iranian ships have been getting out already, and we’ve let that happen to supply the rest of the world.” The US also bombed military sites on Kharg Island—important to Iran’s oil network—though President Trump said he had, for the moment, spared Iran’s oil infrastructure.
Analysts say the situation shows the strait is not simply closed but selectively restricted: functioning for Iranian exports and a limited set of tolerated non-Iranian movements while being off-limits to much other commercial traffic. ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey warned that if Iran seeks to inflict pain through higher energy prices, it could further tighten which tankers are permitted to transit, using control over the chokepoint as leverage.
