The Observer Research Foundation (ORF) has published its first Global Quarterly, Navigating Megatrends for 2026, mapping six interconnected domains likely to define international and domestic change next year. ORF scholars stress that these megatrends are lived realities: they interact with leadership, institutions, and ideas rather than unfolding in isolation.
Geopolitics, Defence and Security — Turbulence Ahead
ORF highlights a more volatile security landscape in 2026, shaped in part by a possible Trump-era foreign policy agenda: higher tariffs, reduced engagement with multilateral institutions, and a readiness to use force more freely. Moscow and Beijing are expected to deepen practical cooperation—military-technical ties, joint exercises, and training—that accelerates Chinese defence modernization. Regional flashpoints include renewed tensions in Latin America (territorial claims and shifting alignments), ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and persistent instability across parts of Africa. Key themes to watch are a strengthening Russia–China axis, proliferation of bilateral and minilateral arrangements, intensified competition in new technological and resource arenas, and a reemergence of nuclear considerations in strategic calculations.
Geoeconomics and Trade — A Year of Rebalancing
Countries in the Global South that control critical minerals—Indonesia, Mexico, Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, Peru—are poised to extract greater leverage from those resources, seeking investment, lower tariffs, and expanded domestic processing amid US–China rivalry. Tariff-driven market shifts should spur South–South trade and renewed focus on connectivity corridors and supply-chain infrastructure. At the same time, states must balance openness with industrial policies that shield nascent domestic manufacturing from a surge of cheap imports. How Global South governments respond—adopting geoeconomic initiatives of their own or aligning with Washington or Beijing—will shape the contours of a rebalanced globalization.
Technology — Brave New World
AI, quantum computing, digital currencies, and nanotechnology are framed as decisive frontiers where power and political economy intersect. Rising US–China competition will push nations to strengthen national AI capabilities and seek greater policy alignment globally. Two risks loom large: proliferation of AI-generated disinformation and the rapidly growing energy footprint of large-scale AI systems, heightening demand for energy-efficient solutions. Quantum efforts may shift from chasing qubit counts to funding practical, commercially viable applications. In parts of the Global South, digital currencies could deepen remittance flows and cross-border trade, while advances in nanotechnology promise new materials and targeted innovation investment.
Climate and Energy Transitions
ORF identifies continuity rather than a sudden break: 2026 is likely to intensify prior shortcomings in climate and energy policy. Themes such as energy sovereignty, securitized supply chains, and rising power demand driven by digitization will dominate. For developing countries, the central challenge is balancing industrial competitiveness, affordability, and equity within contested climate architectures—managing tradeoffs between decarbonization and development will determine outcomes.
Agriculture, Health, and Urbanization
These sectors are tightly interlinked and require systems thinking that accounts for feedback loops, cascading risks, and socio-ecological interdependence. Demographic shifts and changing consumption patterns are reinforcing cycles of demand and vulnerability, especially in the Global South, which faces the dilemma of mobilizing resources without deepening dependency. Stronger South–South cooperation—buoyed by post‑COP30 momentum and India’s BRICS presidency in 2026—could pool knowledge, finance, and technology to advance resilient agriculture, equitable health systems, and sustainable urbanization.
Education, Skills, Labor, and Immigration
Digital technologies and AI will broaden access and personalize learning, while Industry 4.0 will increase demand for advanced technical skills. Platform-based work will continue to expand, creating opportunities but also underscoring the need for robust worker protections and social safety nets. Climate stress, economic fragility, and conflict are expected to drive greater South–South mobility, reinforcing the need for regional frameworks that reflect diverse realities and priorities.
ORF presents these analyses as tools to identify risks and opportunities and to help policymakers, analysts, and citizens prepare for a complex year. The Global Quarterly offers a cross-cutting, policy-oriented look at how geopolitics, economics, technology, climate, and social change will interact in 2026.
