New Delhi, April 24 (ANI) — Former diplomat Mahesh Sachdev warned that early miscalculations by the United States and Israel over Iran have widened the conflict in West Asia and that rhetoric and political pressure could still spark further escalation.
Sachdev told ANI that at the outbreak of hostilities on February 28, both Israel and the US expected a short, decisive campaign against Iran. That expectation proved wrong, he said, and the resulting clarity about each side’s intentions and capabilities has established firmer “red lines,” which should reduce the chance of fresh misjudgments.
“History shows many wars expand because actors expect them to be swift and manageable,” Sachdev said. “Now that all sides are clearer about what the others can and will do, miscalculations should, in theory, be less likely.”
He cautioned, however, that inflammatory claims of victory risk undoing that stabilising effect. Sachdev called President Donald Trump’s public assertions that the US has already won the war provocative, saying such pronouncements could push Iran or its allies to show they remain able and willing to conduct asymmetric operations.
“President Trump appears under domestic pressure to present a victory narrative,” Sachdev said. “That creates a combustible mix: a political need to demonstrate success and incentives to engineer a short, visible triumph. That dynamic could produce a new skirmish or sharp military incident that would then be touted as a decisive win.”
Sachdev also highlighted the Israel–Lebanon front as especially dangerous. Unlike Iranian attacks, which face distance challenges, fighting with Lebanon is inherently more volatile because the countries share a roughly 79-kilometre border. He noted that Hezbollah—long allied with Iran and once supported via Syria—has seen that logistical link weakened since Syria was cut off, removing a conduit that previously helped supply and shelter the group.
Lebanon’s internal politics complicate matters further: the government has moved to ban Hezbollah’s military wing but lacks the capacity to enforce such a ban against a powerful armed group, Sachdev said.
Diplomatic activity in Washington at the ambassadorial level has assumed new importance. Sachdev pointed to April contacts hosted by the White House as significant: an initial State Department-level meeting on April 14 was followed by another session that President Trump personally hosted. On April 8 a separate ceasefire with Iran was declared; Israel later intensified operations in Lebanon instead of applying that ceasefire there, he said.
Analysts such as Awwad have argued Israel will continue preventive strikes against Hezbollah, while the White House has sought to lock in a pause: President Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire by three weeks and said the leaders of Lebanon and Israel would travel to Washington for talks. Trump suggested the summit could aim for a longer-term settlement, potentially drawing Lebanon into broader regional agreements.
Sachdev said the situation remains fragile and should be closely watched: clearer red lines reduce some risks, but aggressive rhetoric, political pressures to show quick results, and active frontlines along the Israel–Lebanon border keep the possibility of renewed clashes alive.
