New Delhi, May 17 — Professor Srikanth Kondapalli, a Chinese studies expert at Jawaharlal Nehru University, warned that Taiwan is far from an easy target and that any Chinese military invasion would produce catastrophic losses for Beijing.
Speaking to ANI, Kondapalli said Taipei possesses advanced defensive systems and high-tech operational hardware capable of striking deep into the Chinese mainland. “Taiwan is no pushover when you compare Taiwan and Ukraine,” he said, adding that an invasion would be extremely costly: “a minimum one lakh (about 100,000) Chinese soldiers will be killed if there is an invasion by China on Taiwan.”
Kondapalli also stressed the wider economic consequences of conflict, noting that roughly USD 4 trillion of Chinese trade transits the Taiwan Strait. Any armed confrontation, he warned, would severely disrupt Beijing’s long-term economic security.
On the US president’s state visit to Beijing (May 13–15), the JNU professor judged the summit largely symbolic. Despite a high-profile US business delegation that included Elon Musk, Tim Cook and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, Kondapalli said the visit produced no major investment deals or a joint statement and that substantive policy breakthroughs were absent. He highlighted in particular that no announcements were made on sales of Nvidia’s H200 AI chips to China.
Kondapalli outlined security-related takeaways from the talks as well. He said, according to President Trump, China pledged not to support Iran on the nuclear issue, and Xi Jinping referenced concerns about the militarisation of the Strait of Hormuz. The professor also described ongoing back-channel discussions among major powers about moving or storing enriched uranium — specifically, proposals to remove about 440 kilograms of enriched uranium and place it in secure locations in Russia or China.
He warned that growing hostile activity in the Strait of Hormuz poses risks beyond crude shipping, including threats to submarine cable links that would have data-security implications.
Turning to regional geopolitics, Kondapalli cautioned New Delhi about the dangers of an emerging US-China-Pakistan alignment or a broader G2-type arrangement. He said such dynamics would create problems for both China–US and China–India relations and urged India to be “very cautious about this impact.” Citing past episodes of coordination during crises, he suggested structural risks remain even if overt alignments are not formally declared.
Finally, Kondapalli dismissed the idea that recent border talks signal a full return to normalcy with Beijing. He noted the diplomatic double-speak in Beijing’s repeated phrasing of “partners, not rivals” — words used with both India and the US after incidents such as the Galwan clash that cost Indian lives — and reiterated that India should remain vigilant.
(Reporting based on a syndicated ANI interview.)
