As the United States again weighs strikes on Iran, the prospect of a broader regional war has returned to the centre of strategic debate. For Washington’s partners, the pressing question is no longer whether escalation could happen, but how to respond if the crisis evolves into a protracted conflict.
Australia faces a familiar and uncomfortable choice: uphold regional stability while managing an alliance partner inclined to use force to reshape the Middle East. Canberra publicly distanced itself from last year’s strikes on Iranian nuclear sites—acknowledging the actions without endorsing them as allied operations. If violence widens or becomes sustained, that posture will be difficult to maintain, and Australia is badly short of preparedness for this dimension of alliance politics.
Part of the shortcoming is a kind of strategic tunnel vision. Successive policy choices have rightly prioritised the Indo‑Pacific, deepening engagement across Southeast Asia and the Pacific. But that necessary focus has left Canberra less attentive to developments in other regions that directly affect Australia’s security and economic interests.
Stepping back from the Middle East has meant missed opportunities to shape outcomes and to prepare for the likely spillovers of a regional war: mass displacement, migration flows, disrupted energy supplies and other downstream effects that could test treaty obligations and national resilience. Australia has also failed to integrate the implications of major upheaval in Iran with the broader strategic shifts across Eurasia—most notably China’s expanding reach and growing presence in the Indian Ocean. A major shock in Iran would have wide repercussions for Beijing’s interests and for the balance of influence across the Indo‑Pacific.
Today, Australia has limited capacity either to dissuade Washington from escalation or to shape the conduct of a campaign. That gap reflects uneven engagement: pragmatic ties with Gulf states have deepened, but Canberra has not done enough to sustain high‑level, sustained dialogue with the US administration and other key partners that would allow it to influence allied planning.
That blind spot is not irreparable. A more active and calibrated Australian role in Middle Eastern contingencies could align with national interests. As a maritime trading nation, Australia relies on secure sea lanes and benefits from stability in the Indian Ocean; Iranian‑backed proxy activity in the Gulf of Aden and the Strait of Hormuz threatens chokepoints used by Australian commerce and energy supplies. The alignment among Iran, North Korea and Russia also reinforces the case for Australia to cooperate more closely with US efforts to counter such convergences.
Practical steps could raise Australia’s stake without needlessly provoking neighbours or Beijing. Deeper, pragmatic engagement with Gulf partners such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE should be pursued alongside careful diplomacy with Muslim‑majority neighbours. Australia can contribute in ways that play to its strengths: enhance AUKUS Pillar II work on undersea, cyber and electronic warfare to show alliance interoperability beyond nuclear submarines; offer naval and discreet air logistics and rear‑area support from northern and western Australian bases to sustain long‑range, stand‑off operations when access closer to the Middle East is constrained.
Complementing US facilities such as Diego Garcia, Australia’s coastline and existing US rotational footprints—Submarine Rotational Force West and Marine Rotational Forces in Darwin—could be adapted to back broader coalition operations. Any involvement should be driven by clear national interest and strategic flexibility, not automatic deference to Washington. Done prudently, greater Australian engagement would strengthen alliance cohesion, protect vital sea lanes and increase Canberra’s influence over outcomes that will affect its region.
Johannes Kornberger is a geopolitical analyst and founder of Mackinder Advisory, with previous roles at UNHCR, the Council of Europe and Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.
