A report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on March 28 warns that Iran could use repeated missile launches to impose psychological pressure on Israeli civilians by forcing frequent sheltering and keeping the country on heightened alert.
ISW says Tehran appears to be spreading out its ballistic missile launches across the day — often pausing for hours between salvos — rather than conducting large, concentrated strikes. The analysis interprets this pattern as an attempt to multiply the number of times per day that Israelis must seek shelter, thereby maximizing psychological impact despite limited strike capacity.
The report also notes Iran’s increasing use of cluster munitions in attacks on Israel. ISW interprets that choice as reflecting Tehran’s constrained ability to threaten discrete military targets inside Israel, and as part of an effort to inflict psychological effects on civilians.
ISW describes this dispersed-launch approach as suboptimal militarily and likely the result of U.S. and Israeli efforts to degrade Iran’s ability to conduct large-scale missile attacks. The combined U.S.-Israeli campaign, the report says, has hindered Iran’s ability to mount consistent mass-launch operations during the current conflict.
The analysis points to continued allied disruption of Iranian missile launch capacity, including efforts to prevent Iran from regaining access to launchers stored in underground facilities. On March 27, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) released footage it said showed strikes on bulldozers and loaders Iran was likely using to clear debris and reopen tunnel entrances to underground sites.
Separately on March 27, the Israel Defense Forces conducted strikes on Iranian nuclear-related infrastructure, ISW reports. Targets included the Arak Heavy Water Production Facility in Markazi Province and the Ardakan yellowcake (uranium concentrate) production plant in Yazd Province — sites previously damaged and reportedly subject to repeated Iranian restoration attempts following strikes during the June 2025 Israel–Iran War.
The report also notes a March 27 defense cooperation agreement between Ukraine and Saudi Arabia. According to the Ukrainian presidential office, the deal includes Saudi acquisition of Ukrainian support for air defenses plus broader technological cooperation and investment ties.
ISW’s assessment frames Iran’s current strike patterns as primarily aimed at psychological pressure amid degraded missile capabilities, while allied strikes continue to target Iran’s launch infrastructure and nuclear-related sites.
