The Cuban Communist Party has demonstrated remarkable durability across six decades in power.
From the decades-long U.S. trade embargo aimed at Fidel Castro’s 1959 revolution to the severe shortages of the “special period” after the Soviet Union’s collapse, both external hostility and internal crises have failed to topple the leadership.
But the current emergency—prompted by what amounts to a naval squeeze by the Trump administration as it pushes for regime change after ousting Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro—may be among the gravest the government has faced.
Even as the U.S. fights with Iran, President Donald Trump said this week he expects to “have the honour of taking Cuba” soon. While his precise meaning was unclear, U.S. officials are reportedly seeking President Miguel Díaz-Canel’s removal in talks with Havana that could be intended to avoid direct military action.
Without imposing a formal blockade, the White House has already devastated trade with the island.
Shipping data analyzed by maritime intelligence firm Windward show that in March supplies of oil, food and other goods to Cuba nearly stopped, with no foreign-originating tankers arriving. Port calls—which include tankers moving between Cuban ports—averaged about 50 per month in 2025 but plunged to just 11 in March, all from domestic ports, the lowest level since 2017.
Relief looks unlikely: no tankers are listing Cuba as a destination, and only three container ships—originating from China, India and the Netherlands—show Cuba as an intended port, though their plans could change.
The chokehold is hitting Cuba’s 11 million people hard. Residents face widespread blackouts and a collapse in medical services as fuel shortages leave ambulances and hospital generators powerless. Cuba relies heavily on oil for electricity and produces barely 40 percent of what it needs.
Ian Ralby, head of I.R. Consilium, a U.S.-based maritime security consultancy, said Washington’s tough posture is unlikely to win friends among Cubans hoping for change.
“Every Cuban resident is suffering the acute inaccessibility to fuel and all the knock-on consequences in terms of access to food, hospitals and free movement,” he said.
The abrupt halt in trade has occurred without reimposition of export restrictions that were relaxed during the Biden administration. In the last year, U.S. exports of poultry, pork and other foodstuffs to Cuba—making up most U.S. shipments—rose to $490 million, the highest since 2009. Non-agricultural exports and humanitarian donations, much of it to Cuba’s growing private sector, more than doubled.
Emboldened by the overthrow of Maduro, Trump has ramped up rhetoric about Cuba, at times promising a “friendly takeover” and telling conservative Latin American allies he would “take care” of Cuba once the conflict with Iran subsides. Neither the president nor his administration has defined what these vows entail, but the visible presence of U.S. warships used in the action against Maduro has prompted companies and countries that trade with Cuba to self-restrict.
“Nobody wants to be on the radar of Trump’s Truth Social account,” said John Kavulich, president of the New York-based U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council.
Ahead of the U.S. operation that removed Maduro in a nighttime raid on January 3, Trump announced the U.S. would block Venezuelan oil shipments to Cuba and seized some tankers to enforce a so-called “quarantine,” invoking language used by President John F. Kennedy during the 1962 missile crisis.
In late January, Trump signed an executive order threatening tariffs on any nation that supplies oil to Cuba, alarming Mexican officials who have opposed U.S. policy toward Havana. Mexico’s state oil company, Pemex, had become a key source as Venezuelan oil flows declined.
Havana denounces the actions as a “fuel blockade.” The U.S. rejects that label, mindful that international law treats naval measures that punish civilians as unlawful aggression outside formal wartime.
“Cuba is a free, independent and sovereign state—nobody dictates what we do,” Díaz-Canel wrote on social media in January. “Cuba does not attack; we are the victims of U.S. attacks for 66 years and we will prepare ourselves to defend the homeland with our last drop of blood.”
Facing growing criticism that its measures are causing civilian suffering, the administration has offered some limited concessions. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has softened parts of the messaging, and in January the State Department sent $3 million in food kits, water purification tablets and other humanitarian supplies to the island. Last month the White House said it would permit U.S. firms to send fuel—including Venezuelan oil—to private Cuban businesses.
