Multiple outlets, including The Washington Post and The Associated Press, have reported that Russia has provided Iran with intelligence to help target US forces in the Middle East—information allegedly including locations of American warships and aircraft. The claim is plausible even if it also serves a political purpose, such as rallying support for the US–Israel campaign against Iran or undermining Vladimir Putin’s recent efforts to present himself as a mediator with Gulf leaders.
Moscow was never bound to Tehran by a formal mutual-defense treaty, but it has motives to retaliate for US-enabled strikes on Russian assets. Last summer’s Operation Spiderweb—an attack on parts of Russia’s strategic forces—has been widely seen as unlikely to have occurred without American targeting assistance, setting a precedent for reciprocal intelligence cooperation.
From Russia’s perspective, the war in Ukraine is largely a contest in which the United States uses Kyiv as a proxy to strike at Russian targets while avoiding direct US–Russia conflict. By the same logic, Russia could employ Iran as a proxy to pressure American interests in the Middle East while keeping direct confrontation with the US off the table. If true, supplying targeting intelligence to Iran would be a risky but consistent application of that proxy strategy.
If Moscow did provide such assistance, the political costs would be significant. Putin’s credibility as a potential mediator would suffer, and Russia’s regional balancing act—particularly relations with Gulf states that host US forces—would be jeopardized if Moscow aided strikes on bases on their soil. Without Washington sharing direct evidence with Gulf partners, however, those states are unlikely to break with Russia outright, though mistrust could increase.
A major uncertainty is how President Trump will react. He called the question “stupid” when asked on Fox News. He could dismiss the reports as false, downplay them, or respond to pressure from hawks and security officials by taking tougher steps: suspending US–Russia bilateral talks, tightening secondary sanctions on Moscow, or accelerating military aid to Ukraine, including longer-range munitions.
Since Trump’s return to office, Russia has offered a resource-focused partnership as leverage to push the US toward negotiated concessions in Ukraine. Reports of Russian assistance to Iran could scuttle that approach if they prompt stronger anti-Russian measures in Washington.
No definitive public evidence has been released, but the story aligns with concerns voiced by both Russia’s adversaries and some of its regional partners, suggesting the allegation warrants scrutiny.
This article first appeared on Andrew Korybko’s Substack and is republished here with edits for clarity and updates on President Trump’s response.
