New Delhi, March 6 — At the Raisina Dialogue 2026, foreign policy specialists cautioned that the West Asia conflict is no longer narrowly regional and is beginning to intersect with other global security theatres, including the Indo-Pacific.
Speaking in a session titled “Beyond Strategic Ambiguity: Rethinking Deterrence in the Taiwan Strait,” Dhruva Jaishankar, Executive Director of ORF America, said the Middle East confrontation is “obviously widening.” He cited recent drone strikes on British military facilities off Cyprus as evidence of the conflict’s expanding reach and of Iran’s growing missile and drone capabilities. Jaishankar warned both the United States and Iran appreciate the war will not remain contained, producing notable spillover effects, and said clashes in Ukraine and Iran are converging with other theatres in ways not previously foreseen.
Bonnie Glick, an Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, addressed concerns that US forces might be redirected from East Asia to the Middle East. She argued the United States has the capacity to respond to multiple crises at once and noted that while China could view US involvement in Iran as an opening regarding Taiwan, Washington has made clear it retains the ability to act if required.
Helena Legarda of the Mercator Institute for Chinese Studies observed that Beijing may exploit foreign conflicts as rhetorical leverage, but such arguments do not necessarily translate into a justification for military action against Taiwan. She added that China is keen to present itself as a responsible global actor and that this narrative resonates in parts of the developing world. Legarda also warned that an ongoing war in Ukraine would constrain Europe’s ability to deploy significant military assets to the Indo-Pacific, although economic sanctions would remain an available tool.
From Taipei, I-Chung Lai, Senior Advisor to the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation, said current regional crises have not altered the basic military balance across the Taiwan Strait. He judged that China still lacks the invasion capability needed to seize Taiwan now and probably will not have it by next year. Lai said the greater long-term worry is sustaining Taiwan’s supply of weapons and ammunition amid heightened global demand.
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