Karachi [Pakistan], April 23 (ANI): Pakistan’s inflation is expected to remain in double digits through April 2026 as sustained cost pressures, especially from energy, keep overall price levels high, The Express Tribune reports.
A report by Optimus Capital cited by The Express Tribune identifies energy inflation as the main driver, with year-on-year energy costs projected to approach 30 per cent. Firm global oil prices, constrained fiscal space for subsidies, and the pass-through of fuel price hikes into the wider economy are key factors.
Transport costs are particularly volatile, affecting both direct inflation and secondary areas like food logistics and distribution. Although headline food inflation appears relatively stable, it remains vulnerable to disruptions. Analyst Maaz Azam noted that supply improvements have been uneven and often short-lived. Seasonal swings, weak infrastructure, and border interruptions create localized shortages, while agricultural incomes can be undermined by logistical inefficiencies despite better harvests.
The report also flags overlapping domestic and external risks. Greater trade via the Iran–Central Asia corridor could gradually ease supply constraints, but limited operations at the Afghan border continue to disrupt commodity flows and cause periodic price distortions. Emerging weather risks, including possible El Niño conditions from mid-2026, threaten crop yields and water availability; reservoir levels are currently better than last year but climate uncertainty could push up food prices.
For April, Pakistan’s National Consumer Price Index is projected to rise around 10 per cent year-on-year, sustaining double-digit inflation, The Express Tribune says. Monthly increases are expected to be driven by fuel-led transport costs, with additional pressure from housing, utilities, and LPG. Core inflation is also estimated at about 10 per cent, reflecting entrenched structural pressures such as wage adjustments and exchange-rate pass-through.
Looking ahead, the macroeconomic outlook remains fragile. External financing has provided temporary relief, but risks from oil prices and imported inflation persist, The Express Tribune reports. (ANI)
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