Scientists are increasingly concerned a “mega” El Niño could develop in 2026–2027, possibly ranking among the strongest on record and rivaling the catastrophic 1877–78 event. Meteorologist Ryan Maue has warned that rising ocean temperatures—potentially exceeding 2.5°C above normal—combined with ongoing climate change are producing alarming model projections. He has said scientists monitoring each model update are “getting heart palpitations.”
The 1877–78 El Niño produced extreme droughts, crop failures and famine across many regions, contributing to mortality estimated as high as 4% of the global population at the time. If a similarly strong event occurs now, experts say impacts could be severe worldwide: intense heatwaves and prolonged droughts in vulnerable areas such as parts of Asia and Australia, heavy rainfall and flooding in others like parts of the southern United States, and major disruptions to agriculture and fisheries that threaten food security and economies.
Climate change may amplify these impacts, making a future mega El Niño potentially more damaging than historical events. El Niño itself is a natural pattern in which central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures become unusually warm, shifting global weather patterns. A “mega El Niño” refers to an unusually intense version of this phenomenon, with much higher-than-normal ocean temperatures and correspondingly stronger global weather effects.
Scientists can forecast El Niño months ahead, but predicting its exact strength remains uncertain. If projections of an exceptionally strong event hold, governments, farmers and aid agencies may need to prepare for significant challenges including food shortages, economic strain and widespread weather disruptions.
