The country’s population expected to grow to 71 million by mid-2034
Reuters
London, Updated At : 04:06 PM Apr 28, 2026 IST
The United Kingdom’s population is now expected to reach 71.0 million by mid-2034, down from a previous projection of 72.2 million, the Office for National Statistics said on Tuesday, citing lower immigration assumptions.
The ONS estimated net immigration would add about 2.2 million people to the UK’s 69.3 million population between mid-2024 and mid-2034, while deaths exceeding births would reduce the population by roughly 450,000.
Net migration is projected to be the sole source of population growth over the period, the agency said.
The lower population outlook could increase fiscal pressures facing finance minister Rachel Reeves ahead of her autumn budget, the ONS noted.
The agency cautioned the projections are not definitive forecasts but are largely extrapolations of recent trends and do not attempt to predict future policy changes or other drivers of migration, fertility or mortality.
The projection highlights Britain’s ageing population: the number of pensioners is expected to rise 15% to 14.2 million between 2024 and 2034, while children under 16 are projected to fall by 13%.
The ONS also trimmed its fertility assumption to 1.42 children per woman from 1.45 in the previous projections two years ago.
There was a larger cut to the assumed future rate of net immigration, to 230,000 a year from 340,000 in the 2024 report, reflecting the sharp fall in net migration since its 2023 peak and expert advice, the ONS said.
Immigration surged after the COVID-19 pandemic, driven by pent-up demand and a decision by former prime minister Boris Johnson’s government to relax rules, notably for low-paid care workers and their families. After net immigration neared 1 million in the year to June 2023, it fell to 204,000 in the year to June 2025.
Regionally, England’s population is projected to grow faster than the rest of the UK, rising 2.9% by mid-2034, compared with 1.0% in Wales, 0.6% in Northern Ireland and 0.3% in Scotland.
