Bettors on prediction platform Polymarket profited heavily from suspiciously timed wagers that the United States would attack Iran by Feb. 28 — the day President Donald Trump announced a bombing campaign against the country.
Bloomberg reported that six accounts on Polymarket, all created in February, “made around $1 million in profit” by betting on the timing of the US attack. The accounts, Bloomberg said, had only ever placed bets on when US strikes might occur, and some shares were purchased, in some cases at roughly a dime apiece, hours before explosions were reported in Tehran. One account using the name Magamyman reportedly earned over $515,000 by betting about $87,000 that the US would strike Iran by Feb. 28.
The bets drew scrutiny from lawmakers. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) wrote on social media that “it’s insane this is legal,” accusing Trump’s circle of profiting from war and death and saying he would introduce legislation to ban such trading. Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.) said prediction markets cannot be a vehicle for profiting off advance knowledge of military action and demanded answers, transparency and oversight. Levin noted that Donald Trump Jr. sits on Polymarket’s advisory board and that his firm invested double-digit millions into the platform last year, and said that Justice Department and Commodity Futures Trading Commission investigations into Polymarket were dropped after Trump took office.
There is no concrete evidence tying administration officials to the wagers, but the timing heightened concerns about insider trading via increasingly popular prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi. Last month, bettors used Polymarket to make large gains on suspiciously timed wagers about when the US would oust Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Polymarket currently lists markets including when Iran will have a new supreme leader, when the US and Iran will reach a ceasefire, and when the US will invade Iran. TMZ reported that a group at a Washington, DC, restaurant was openly discussing a national secret hours before the bombing, raising the possibility that wealthy people overhearing gossip in DC could place “insider” bets. Journalist David Bernstein noted that such leaks could come from casual gossip or group texts rather than from a tightly sealed circle.
Originally published by Common Dreams, this article is republished under Creative Commons license.
