Two simultaneous wars — one in the Middle East centered on Iran and one in Europe centered on Ukraine — are intensifying a global energy crisis with little sign of near-term relief. Attacks on production, refining and shipping, enabled by new weapons such as long‑range drones and autonomous seafaring vessels, are degrading the world’s ability to move and convert crude into the fuels economies require.
Historically, energy infrastructure has been a target in war. What’s new is the effectiveness and reach of low-cost autonomous systems that can evade existing defenses. That shift is increasing the risk that critical shipping lanes and refinery networks may be disrupted for prolonged periods, not only in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el‑Mandeb but across the wider global trade system.
Early market measures have so far blunted the worst effects, but those stopgaps are running out. Ships that cleared chokepoints before closures arrived in ports around the world, some governments released strategic oil reserves and a handful of countries adopted conservation measures, such as encouraging remote work. Yet damage to refining capacity — the facilities that turn crude into diesel, gasoline and other products — has been severe and growing.
Goldman Sachs estimates the global refining shortfall, accounting for bombed Russian refineries and products trapped behind closed waterways such as the Strait of Hormuz and parts of the Black Sea, at roughly 6.5 million barrels per day. As more facilities and logistical routes are hit, closing that gap will become ever harder, and the approach of winter raises the stakes for heating and transport fuels.
Middle East front: widening damage
Iran and allied militias have used aerial drones and other weapons to inflict widespread, lasting damage across Middle Eastern energy infrastructure. Analysts estimate more than 1.2 million barrels per day of regional refining capacity is offline because of physical damage. High‑profile strikes have hit major processing centers — for example, an attack on crude processing towers at the Abqaiq complex in Saudi Arabia — demonstrating how vulnerable even heavily protected sites can be.
Attacks on shipping and ports amplify the impact. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el‑Mandeb have complicated exports from Gulf producers. Saudi Arabia has increased reliance on Mediterranean routes, moving millions of barrels per day through the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline, but strikes on ports and nearby facilities show those alternatives are also exposed.
On multiple occasions, drone strikes have extended to nations such as Egypt, signaling the conflict’s potential to spread across the Mediterranean and threaten additional export channels.
Ukraine front: long‑range strikes inside Russia
Ukraine’s long‑range drone campaign has significantly degraded Russia’s refining system. Over a dozen major Russian refineries have been damaged, with estimates suggesting Ukraine has knocked out somewhere between roughly a third and possibly up to 60 percent of Russia’s fuel‑making capacity, depending on the measure. Those attacks are intended to constrain Moscow’s military logistics and reduce revenues from refined product exports, but they also reduce civilian fuel availability inside Russia and on global markets. In response, Russia has restricted diesel exports, tightening supply for regions that previously relied on Russian shipments.
Knock‑on effects: LPG, grain, and shipping bottlenecks
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has curtailed around 20 percent of the world’s liquefied petroleum gas flow, a widely used cooking fuel in countries such as India and China. Shortages and rising prices have forced households to ration or skip meals in some places. Seaborne drones and attacks around the Black Sea have at times halted crude exports from landlocked producers that rely on that route, notably Kazakhstan. Houthi attacks have previously closed or disrupted the southern Red Sea, undermining a key route that might otherwise bypass Hormuz and further constraining alternatives.
The same inexpensive, readily proliferated technologies are now appearing in other oil‑producing regions: separatist or insurgent groups have used drones to attack production equipment, widening the geographic footprint of threat and forcing operators to reassess protection and insurance costs.
Limited sources of relief, but no easy fix
A few developments have eased pressure on markets. China’s crude imports and purchases of petroleum products have fallen markedly, in part because of strategic reserve use, a softening economy and reduced refinery throughput, which has made some Chinese refiners resell barrels rather than process them. In the Americas, higher Brazilian production and refinery runs have reduced the region’s import needs, supplying some relief. Venezuelan output has ticked up as some preexisting operators return, but political, legal and investment barriers limit how fast production can expand.
The United States has increased oil and refinery output, which has helped shield American consumers from immediate shortages. Yet the global market remains interconnected: worsening supply disruptions abroad can raise prices here and accelerate inflation by increasing costs for transportation, fertilizers, plastics and many consumer goods.
Longer‑term implications and needed responses
The rapid spread of drone and autonomous attack methods against energy infrastructure is a strategic challenge for every economy that depends on seaborne energy trade. Beyond emergency stock releases and short‑term conservation, countries face a structural choice: accelerate efforts to secure domestic energy sources and diversify supply chains, and expand investments in resilient low‑carbon generation and fuels.
Policies to strengthen energy security will likely include: bolstering protection and redundancy for critical terminals and refineries; investing in domestic production where economically and environmentally feasible; building more distributed and renewable electricity capacity to reduce fuel demand; and expanding strategic storage for both crude and refined products. International cooperation to keep sea lanes open and to deter attacks will also be essential.
The current crises make clear that energy vulnerabilities once thought manageable can quickly become systemic when modern, low‑cost weaponry can disable both facilities and shipping routes. Preparing for a world with less reliable seaborne energy flows means accelerating both defensive and transition strategies so economies can withstand protracted disruptions.
Amy Myers Jaffe is a longtime researcher of global energy geopolitics. This piece synthesizes recent developments and their likely consequences for energy markets and national security.
