Amritsar (Punjab) [India], April 29 (ANI): Navdeep Singh Suri, former Indian Ambassador to the United Arab Emirates, said the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC was not unexpected.
Speaking to ANI, Suri noted the dissatisfaction dated back to 2021, when the UAE’s quota was set at 2.7 million barrels per day despite having a higher production capacity. “I think it is a very significant development. I must say that it hasn’t really come as too much of a surprise because for those of us who have been watching the region, the signs had been there at least since 2021. The UAE was not happy when OPEC was cutting quotas. At that time, their quota was pegged at 2.7 million barrels a day when their capacity to produce was much higher. So, even as far back as July 2021, the UAE was indicating to Saudi Arabia and others that it was not happy with the state of affairs,” he said.
Suri added that leaving OPEC will give the UAE greater flexibility in managing output. “Now they have finally executed their decision to part ways with OPEC. They joined in 1967, even before the union of the UAE emerged. I think they are aiming for a much greater degree of strategic autonomy and flexibility regarding how much they produce, perhaps to be much nimbler in changing output according to market requirements,” he said.
He said the timing—announced during the GCC summit in Riyadh—might have been tactical, but the choice had been under consideration for some time. Suri argued the UAE sees a looming oil shortage and, once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, will need capacity to boost production. As a low-cost producer, the UAE intends to monetize its oil to fund ambitious non-oil plans, including AI, data centers, semiconductors, free zones, and trade.
Suri also highlighted security grievances: the UAE has been targeted by nearly 3,000 missiles, projectiles, rockets, and drones, he said, and felt disappointed that many GCC neighbours did not more forcefully condemn or support the UAE against Iranian attacks. He cited Dr. Anwar Gargash, the president’s diplomatic advisor, who has stressed the UAE is assessing which partners stand by it and which are bystanders.
On implications for India, Suri said the move could be beneficial. During his ambassadorship (2016–2019), he worked on deepening energy ties—signing India’s first oil concession for Lower Zakum, enabling later Abu Dhabi concessions, and executing strategic petroleum reserves at Padur and Mangalore. “Given the very special relationship that India has with the UAE, we should benefit from this move in two ways,” he said. First, increased UAE production after hostilities ease could help stabilize oil prices, aiding major importers like India. Second, the close bilateral relationship may allow India to negotiate deals directly with the UAE that might not be possible while the UAE remained constrained by OPEC.
The UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ to prioritize “national interests,” a move that dealt a blow to the oil-exporting groups amid an energy shock tied to the US-Israel war on Iran, according to Al Jazeera. (ANI)
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