President Donald Trump was warned that attacking Iran could trigger retaliation against U.S. Gulf allies despite his Monday claims that Tehran’s reaction was a surprise, according to a U.S. official and two sources familiar with U.S. intelligence reports.
Pre-war intelligence assessments did not present Iran’s response as a guarantee, but “it certainly was on the list of potential outcomes,” one source said. The sources requested anonymity to discuss classified briefings.
At a Kennedy Center board meeting in the White House, Trump said Iran’s strikes against Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait were unexpected. “They (Iran) weren’t supposed to go after all these other countries in the Middle East,” he said. “Nobody expected that. We were shocked.”
Trump’s comments echoed other administration claims that have not been corroborated by U.S. intelligence reporting — including assertions that Iran would soon possess a missile capable of striking the U.S. homeland and that it would need two to four weeks to make a nuclear bomb and then use it. Those allegations, and the notion of an imminent threat to U.S. forces in the region, have been cited by Trump and some top aides to justify joining Israel in launching an air war against Iran on Feb. 28.
Sources said Trump was also briefed before the operation that Tehran would likely try to close the strategically and economically vital Strait of Hormuz.
Over the past two weeks, Iranian drones and missiles have hit targets in the Gulf states, including U.S. military bases and an Emirates base hosting French troops, as well as civilian sites such as hotels, airports and energy facilities. Iran has also halted almost all shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil supplies transit, causing energy prices to spike.
Democratic lawmakers emerged from administration briefings last week saying they were not told of any imminent threat that required the U.S. and Israel to launch the war.
The White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.
Warning of a regional war
A U.S. official said Trump was briefed before the war that striking Iran could spark a broader regional conflict, including Iranian retaliation against Gulf capitals—especially if Tehran believed those countries were condoning or actively supporting U.S. attacks.
When asked during a signing event in the Oval Office whether he had been briefed about the risk of Iran striking Gulf states, Trump replied, “Nobody, nobody, no, no, no. The greatest experts, nobody thought they were going to hit.”
A second source said the U.S. intelligence community had assessed that Israel’s plan to carry out strikes aimed at killing top Iranian leaders would likely prompt retaliation against U.S. military and diplomatic outposts. The administration did not order departures of diplomatic staff from several regional embassies until after the air strikes began.
The intelligence community also warned that Iran “could” broaden its retaliation to include American allies in the region, the source said.
