Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi visits the White House on Thursday for talks that give US President Donald Trump an opportunity to press a key security partner for support in his campaign against Iran, risking strain on a decades-old alliance.
Takaichi is the first major ally to meet Trump in person since he asked a coalition of nations, including Japan, to send ships to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has largely closed amid the conflict.
“Takaichi is in a tight spot,” said David Boling of the Asia Group consultancy in Tokyo and a former US trade negotiator with Japan. “The biggest risk is that Trump publicly presses her for security commitments that she can’t deliver on.” Japanese officials said Takaichi had hoped to use the visit to underscore the challenge posed by a more assertive China, but that agenda has been sidelined.
Instead, she must balance placating Trump over his demand for naval escorts through a waterway that carries about a fifth of global energy supplies while avoiding legal and political pitfalls. US allies such as Germany, Italy and Spain have ruled out joining a Gulf mission, and EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said, “Nobody is ready to put their people in harm’s way.”
Takaichi told parliament on Monday that Japan had received no official US request but was checking possible actions within the limits of its pacifist constitution. A recent Asahi poll found fewer than 10% of Japanese support US and Israeli attacks on Iran.
Analysts say sending Japanese ships into a conflict zone would be legally fraught and deeply unpopular. “It has turned into a discussion that shakes the very foundations of the Japan-US security alliance,” said Kazuhiro Maeshima, a politics professor at Sophia University. He added that Trump has significant leverage: Japan depends on about 50,000 US troops, a carrier strike group and fighter squadrons stationed in the country to deter China and North Korea. Trump has also used tariffs to extract investments and address trade imbalances.
“If he can bring Japan into the coalition of the willing, it will increase pressure on other countries,” Maeshima said. “Conversely, if Japan refuses, he can make an example of it—showing what happens when a country says no.” Public support for Takaichi has dipped slightly since her election win last month as her government contends with rising costs partly driven by the Middle East energy shock.
Trump praised Japan’s first female leader during his October visit and will have multiple opportunities—talks, a working lunch and dinner—to press her on Iran. With US allies in Asia concerned that redeploying US assets to the Middle East could weaken defenses against China, Tokyo had hoped China would top the agenda. Japan is pursuing deals with Washington to diversify critical mineral supplies from China and to join Trump’s Golden Dome missile defense system aimed at hypersonic threats from China and Russia, officials said.
Anticipating a focus on Iran, Tokyo is scrambling to offer assistance, but it is unclear whether any proposal will satisfy Trump, according to a source who spoke on condition of anonymity. With limited military options, Tokyo could offer to act as an intermediary with Tehran, said Tsuneo Watanabe, senior fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation. In 2019, Takaichi’s mentor and assassinated predecessor Shinzo Abe carried a message to Iran’s supreme leader during a failed diplomatic effort, but neither side appears ready for talks now.
“I don’t think it’s going to be enough to talk to the Iranians,” said Kurt Campbell, a former deputy secretary of state under President Joe Biden. He predicted Trump would likely pose a specific yes-or-no request to Takaichi. “This is a moment of enormous political peril.”
