The recent American and Israeli strikes on Iran, and the ensuing confusion in Washington about war aims, are reshaping global geopolitics. Iran’s counterattacks — striking U.S. bases and regional partners — have consequences far beyond the Middle East. One immediate effect is a spike in oil prices, but the conflict is also indirectly aiding Russia as it prepares for another offensive in Ukraine.
The Russia-Ukraine war has entered its fifth year, exacting heavy human and material costs on both sides. One U.S. think tank has estimated Russia’s total casualties in the hundreds of thousands, and Moscow has turned to unconventional means to replenish forces, including recruiting foreign fighters from Africa and Asia and reportedly accepting personnel from North Korea. High casualty rates and wartime pressures make preserving domestic support and preventing economic collapse central priorities for President Vladimir Putin.
Russia’s federal budget remains heavily dependent on oil revenues. Efforts by Ukraine’s backers to limit Moscow’s hydrocarbon income have reduced oil’s share of Russia’s budget to a five-year low. Yet the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran risks reversing that trend and indirectly strengthening Russia’s capacity to wage war in Ukraine.
The most direct link is energy. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a vital chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil transits — and attacks on regional hydrocarbon infrastructure have tightened global oil markets. Asian importers, hit hardest by disruptions in Middle Eastern supply, will look for alternative crude sources. Russia, with its willingness to sell at discounted rates and a maritime “shadow fleet” that helps evade Western restrictions, stands to capture much of that demand. Countries such as China and other Asian buyers are likely to increase purchases of relatively cheaper Russian oil to shield their economies from supply shocks.
Higher prices and increased Russian sales would bolster Moscow’s revenues at a time when the economy is strained — providing funds that can be diverted to sustain the military campaign in Ukraine. The conflict in Ukraine is increasingly one of attrition; external material support matters. As global attention shifts to the Middle East, Western focus and political will for Ukraine could wane.
That diversion of attention has practical effects on capability and supply. The U.S.-led bombing campaign against Iran is depleting U.S. munitions and straining air defenses. American leaders have acknowledged shortages in certain stockpiles, and available weaponry may be prioritized for Middle Eastern contingencies. Under the current U.S. administration, direct transfers of some munitions to Ukraine have been curtailed, and Europe still depends on U.S. weapons manufactures to replace depleted inventories. As fighting in the Middle East intensifies, Ukraine could receive lower priority for scarce Western matériel.
There is, however, a possible countervailing development. Iran’s drone assaults have exposed limitations in U.S. and Gulf air defenses: intercepting large numbers of low-cost drones and missiles is expensive and rapidly consumes interceptor supplies. Ukraine, by contrast, has become a global leader in both drone employment and counter-drone systems. Ukrainian forces have innovated affordable strike drones and effective electronic and kinetic defenses, and a NATO war game last year highlighted Ukrainian expertise in unmanned systems.
That proficiency creates an opening. Reports indicate Washington has asked Ukraine for help improving drone defenses in the Middle East. If Ukraine can export its know-how — in technology, tactics, or personnel training — it can provide value to partners even as Western munitions are stretched. Such cooperation could help protect critical assets in the Gulf and buy time for replenishing missile and interceptor stockpiles, while offering Ukraine a way to remain strategically relevant despite competing crises.
In short, the U.S.-Israeli confrontation with Iran is reshaping energy markets and military priorities in ways that may advantage Russia. Higher oil prices and redirected Asian demand can increase Moscow’s revenues, while Western attention and materiel could be diverted from Ukraine. Still, Ukraine’s edge in drone warfare offers a pragmatic role it can play to mitigate some risks and remain integral to allied security efforts.
James Horncastle, Assistant Professor and Edward and Emily McWhinney Professor in International Relations, Simon Fraser University
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.
