New Delhi [India], March 6 (ANI): At Raisina Dialogue 2026, foreign policy experts warned that the West Asia conflict has moved beyond a regional issue and is “bleeding together” with other global security theatres, including the Indo-Pacific.
Speaking in a session titled “Beyond Strategic Ambiguity: Rethinking Deterrence in the Taiwan Strait,” Dhruva Jaishankar, Executive Director of ORF America, said the Middle East conflict is “obviously widening.” He pointed to drone strikes against British military facilities off Cyprus as evidence of expanding reach and of Iran’s demonstrated missile and drone capabilities. Jaishankar stressed that both the US and Iran understand the war will not remain narrowly contained, creating significant spillover effects. He added that conflicts in Ukraine and Iran are converging with other theatres in ways previously unanticipated.
Bonnie Glick, Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, addressed concerns about the US shifting military resources from East Asia to West Asia. She argued the United States can address multiple crises simultaneously and noted that while China may view US involvement in Iran as an opportunity regarding Taiwan, Washington’s messaging remains firm: the US retains the ability to respond if necessary.
Helena Legarda of the Mercator Institute for Chinese Studies said Beijing might use foreign conflicts as “rhetorical ammunition,” but that does not necessarily legitimize military action against Taiwan. She noted China seeks to portray itself as a responsible global power and that such narratives find a receptive audience in parts of the world. Legarda cautioned that an ongoing war in Ukraine would limit European ability to send substantial military assets to the Indo-Pacific, though economic sanctions would remain an option.
From Taipei, I-Chung Lai, Senior Advisor to the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation, said current regional conflicts have not shifted the fundamental military balance across the Taiwan Strait. He asserted China does not yet possess the invasion capability to seize Taiwan and likely will not next year either. Lai said the primary concern is long-term military supply—ensuring Taiwan continues to receive weapons and ammunition amid global demand.
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