Brasilia, February 6 (ANI) — Brazil is forecast to record its largest-ever coffee crop in 2026, with production expected to reach 66.2 million 60-kilogram bags, the National Supply Company (Conab) said in its first official crop outlook for the year.
The estimate represents a 17.1% increase over the 2025 harvest and would surpass the previous record of 63.1 million bags set in 2020. Conab credited the rise to favorable weather and structural improvements that supported crop development throughout the season.
Brazil is entering the productive phase of its biennial cycle, leading to an expected 4.1% expansion in cultivated area to nearly 1.9 million hectares. Average yields are projected at 34.2 bags per hectare, up 12.4% from the prior season.
Arabica, more sensitive to biennial swings, is forecast to show the strongest gain at 44.1 million bags, a 23.3% year-on-year increase driven by expanded planting, balanced weather and physiological recovery in a high-yield cycle. Conilon production is estimated at 22.1 million bags, up 6.4% and potentially a record for that variety.
State-level projections indicate broad gains: Minas Gerais is expected to produce 32.4 million bags aided by improved rainfall during flowering; São Paulo about 5.5 million; Bahia roughly 4.6 million. Espírito Santo, the main conilon producer, may reach 19 million bags, a 9% rise. Rondônia is projected to increase 18.3% to 2.7 million bags, helped by adoption of more productive clonal plants.
Despite a 17.1% drop in export volumes in 2025, Brazil logged record coffee export revenues of USD 16.1 billion, driven by a 57.2% rise in average prices. For 2026, prices are expected to remain firm as global consumption grows.
The US Department of Agriculture forecasts world demand at 173.9 million bags, while global stocks are projected to remain tight, supporting elevated international coffee prices.
