US intelligence agencies are examining how Iran might respond if President Donald Trump were to declare a unilateral victory in the two-month war that has killed thousands and become a political liability for the White House, two US officials and a person familiar with the matter said.
The intelligence community is analyzing the scenario and others at the request of senior administration officials. The aim is to understand the implications of Trump potentially pulling back from a conflict that some officials and advisers fear could contribute to heavy Republican losses in this year’s midterm elections.
No decision has been made, and Trump could just as easily escalate military operations. A swift de-escalation could relieve political pressure on the president, the sources said, while risking an emboldened Iran that might rebuild its nuclear and missile programs and threaten US regional allies.
The sources spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence matters. It is unclear when the assessment will be completed, though the intelligence community previously evaluated Iran’s likely reaction after the initial February bombing campaign. Agencies judged that if Trump declared victory and US forces drew down, Iran would likely view that as a win. If the US declared victory but kept a heavy troop presence, Iran would likely see it as a negotiating tactic rather than an end to the war, one source said.
“CIA is not familiar with the intelligence community’s reported assessment,” Liz Lyons, director of the agency’s office of public affairs, said after this story was published. The CIA declined Reuters’ specific questions about its ongoing work on Iran. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said the US is still engaging with the Iranians on negotiations and would “not be rushed into making a bad deal.” “The president will only enter into an agreement that puts US national security first, and he has been clear that Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon,” she said.
Public opinion shows the war is deeply unpopular. In a Reuters/Ipsos poll released last week, only 26% of respondents said the military campaign has been worth the costs, and just 25% said it has made the US safer. Three people familiar with recent White House discussions described Trump as intensely aware of the political price being paid by him and his party.
Twenty days after Trump declared a ceasefire, diplomacy has so far failed to fully reopen the economically vital Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran closed by attacking ships and laying mines. The strait carries about 20% of the world’s crude oil; its disruption has raised global energy costs and US gasoline prices. Iran’s ability to disrupt commerce has given it leverage against the United States and its allies.
A decision to scale back the US military presence in the region, paired with a mutual lifting of the blockade, would likely ease gasoline prices over time. But the two sides remain far from agreement. Last weekend, Trump canceled a trip by his special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner to meet Iranian officials in Pakistan, saying the trip would take “too much time” and that if Iran wanted to talk “all they had to do was call.”
Military options remain on the table, including renewed airstrikes on Iran’s military and political leaders, according to a person familiar with administration dynamics. One US official and another person familiar with discussions said the most ambitious options—such as a ground invasion of the Iranian mainland—now appear less likely than they did a few weeks ago.
A White House official described domestic pressure on the president to end the war as “enormous.” One source said Iran has used the ceasefire to recover launchers, munitions, drones and other materiel that had been buried by US and Israeli bombing during the conflict’s opening weeks. As a result, the tactical costs of resuming full-scale war are arguably higher now than they were in the initial days of the ceasefire, which began on April 8.
