Danes began voting on Tuesday in an election that could give Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen a third term after her firm stance against U.S. President Donald Trump over Greenland, even as cost-of-living concerns have dented her leftist reputation.
Opinion polls suggest her Social Democrats are headed for their weakest showing since before World War Two: many Danes fault Frederiksen for not doing enough to safeguard the Nordic welfare model, while others are simply tired after nearly seven years of her leadership.
Frederiksen, 48, called the election months ahead of an October deadline, a move observers say was meant to capitalise on a boost in popularity when Trump’s talk of controlling Greenland heated up in January and he declined to rule out military action.
The Greenland row has since cooled into quieter diplomacy and been overtaken by domestic issues such as a proposed wealth tax and debates over immigration. Still, Frederiksen has campaigned on the promise that her tested, tough leadership will help Denmark of about 6 million manage a delicate relationship with Washington and coordinate Europe’s response to Russia’s war in Ukraine.
“I know that sometimes I express myself a bit bluntly,” she told supporters at a campaign event. “But given the times we live in; it is perhaps very good that there are some things that cannot be misunderstood: that Russia should not be allowed to win or that Greenland is not for sale.”
Testing Times
Frederiksen, who has led Denmark since 2019 and was the first premier in more than 40 years to bridge the left-right divide, now faces projections that her coalition will lose its parliamentary majority.
“To a large degree, this election is about Mette Frederiksen,” political analyst Hans Engell said, noting that while some voters see her as the right leader in a crisis, others view her as too authoritarian.
Her Social Democrats, whose hardline asylum policies alienated some on the left, have recovered somewhat in polls since the Greenland episode, climbing from a December low of about 17% to roughly 21%. Nonetheless, the left-leaning bloc is still forecast to fall short of the 90 seats needed for a majority in Denmark’s 179-seat Folketing, with projections around 85 seats.
With left-wing allies expected to remain steady and the right fractured, Frederiksen is still the favourite to form the next government as parties realign along more conventional left-right lines. A key campaign plank is her proposal to reintroduce a wealth tax to fund education and welfare, a bid to signal a shift back to the left.
Denmark’s parliamentary system does not require a government to hold a majority—only that a majority is not against it. The right-leaning bloc is led by Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen of the Liberal Party, while the outcome could hinge on former prime minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen, leader of the centrist Moderates and current foreign minister, who is positioned as potential kingmaker. Rasmussen’s decision to side with Frederiksen’s bloc or a right-leaning combination may determine who forms the next cabinet.
Twelve parties are contesting the vote, and four seats reserved for candidates from Greenland and the Faroe Islands could be decisive. Observers are watching results from Greenland for signs the governing coalition in Nuuk might be faltering, a potentially sensitive development as Denmark discusses future policy with U.S. and Greenlandic officials.
Voting opened at 8 a.m. local time (0700 GMT) and polling stations close at 8 p.m., with exit polls due shortly after.
