An annual threat assessment by the US Director of National Intelligence warns that “India–Pakistan relations remain a risk for nuclear conflict given past conflicts where these two nuclear states squared off, creating the danger of escalation.”
Referring to last year’s clash between the neighbours, the report said “President Trump’s intervention de‑escalated the most recent nuclear tensions.”
Report exposes Pakistan’s clandestine ops: MEA
Responding to Pakistan’s growing nuclear arsenal, the Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson said they’ve had a history of clandestine nuclear proliferation. Such statements once again make it clear to the world what kind of danger they pose and the dangers their clandestine nuclear operations pose.
The report added that neither India nor Pakistan seeks to return to open conflict, but conditions exist for terrorist actors to create catalysts for crises. It noted the terrorist attack last year near Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir as an example of how attacks can spark wider conflict, without naming Pakistan as the originator or sponsor of cross‑border terrorism.
On capabilities, the assessment states that India is developing new and longer‑range nuclear delivery systems. Pakistan continues to develop increasingly sophisticated missile technology that could enable strikes beyond South Asia; the report expressed concern Pakistan could be developing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), normally classified at ranges greater than 5,500 km.
The report also warns that countries with WMD capabilities are modernising, expanding, and testing delivery systems, including dual‑use technologies that complicate detection of emerging programs or developmental progress.
On illicit drugs, the report says China and India remain primary source countries for illicit fentanyl precursor chemicals and pill‑pressing equipment, despite some improvements. It cites an October 2025 meeting in Busan between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping where Beijing agreed to curb shipments of fentanyl precursors to North America, leading to an industry advisory and new export‑license requirements for certain precursors.
India has increased counternarcotics efforts over the past year. In January 2026, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other Indian officials signalled a willingness to deepen engagement with the US on counternarcotics. Nevertheless, Mexico‑based drug traffickers continue to evade international controls through mislabelled shipments and purchases of unregulated chemicals.
