An annual threat assessment by the US Director of National Intelligence says India and Pakistan do not seek a return to open conflict but that conditions exist for terrorist actors to create catalysts for crises. The report cites last year’s terrorist attack near Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir as an example of how attacks can spark wider confrontation.
The report warns that India‑Pakistan relations remain a risk for nuclear escalation, noting past conflicts between the two nuclear-armed states. It says President Trump’s intervention deescalated the most recent nuclear tensions. It also notes India is developing new, longer-range nuclear delivery systems.
Pakistan is reported to be advancing sophisticated missile technologies that could let its military field systems capable of striking beyond South Asia, and the assessment raises concerns Pakistan could be pursuing intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capabilities (generally defined as ranges greater than 5,500 km).
The report observes that countries with weapons-of-mass-destruction capabilities are modernising, expanding, and testing delivery systems, including dual-use technologies that complicate detection of programme emergence or progress. It assesses that China, North Korea, Pakistan, and Russia will probably continue researching, developing, and fielding delivery systems that increase their ranges.
On illicit drugs, the report says China and India remain primary source countries for fentanyl precursor chemicals and pill-pressing equipment, despite some improvements. It references an October 2025 meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi in Busan, where Beijing agreed to curb flows of fentanyl precursors to North America, issued an industry advisory to China‑based companies, and introduced new export‑licensing requirements for certain precursors.
India reportedly stepped up counternarcotics efforts last year, and in January 2026 Prime Minister Modi and other Indian officials signalled willingness to deepen counternarcotics engagement with the US. Nevertheless, the report warns that Mexico‑based traffickers continue to evade international controls through mislabelled shipments and purchases of unregulated chemicals.
