The United States and Israel carried out coordinated strikes over the weekend that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and dozens of other senior Iranian figures, triggering a fierce Iranian response and raising the prospect of a wider regional war. Allies of the U.S. pledged assistance against Iran’s missile and drone attacks. Lebanon’s Hezbollah claimed strikes on Israel for the first time in more than a year, and Israel retaliated.
The first U.S. military deaths have been reported. Fatalities were also confirmed in Israel and in Gulf states; Iran says hundreds were killed on its soil. The attacks came two days after U.S.-Iran talks aimed at constraining Tehran’s nuclear program. They follow last year’s pattern, when an Israeli strike stalled negotiations and led to a 12-day war with U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear sites. Washington has asserted Iran was rebuilding its nuclear capabilities; Iran says it has not enriched uranium since June but has barred IAEA inspectors from inspecting sites struck by the U.S.
Iran
Khamenei, 86, was killed when his compound was bombed Saturday morning. The strikes also hit Iranian ballistic missile sites, navy headquarters, warships and — Iran says — the Natanz enrichment site. The U.S. and Israel have not acknowledged strikes at Natanz; Israel has said it is targeting leadership and nuclear infrastructure.
Khamenei had no designated successor. Tehran has formed a three-member leadership council, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said a new supreme leader could be chosen in “one or two days.” There have been scattered public celebrations over Khamenei’s death; internet restrictions have made it difficult to fully monitor events inside Iran.
In retaliation, Iran launched missile and drone strikes at Israel, killing several people, and at U.S. bases and installations in the region; the U.S. military reported three service members killed. Other Iranian strikes caused deaths in Gulf states including the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait and disrupted hundreds of flights at major airports.
What to watch for: additional military strikes, the selection of a new supreme leader, and the reaction of the Iranian public.
United States
The strikes followed the U.S. buildup of its largest military presence in the region in decades. U.S. and Israeli authorities had tracked senior Iranian leaders’ movements for weeks. President Donald Trump said the “heavy and pinpoint bombing” would continue through the week or longer.
U.S. bases in the region remain potential targets for Iranian retaliation. Washington has indicated readiness to engage with Iran’s new leadership at some point, but meanwhile some members of Congress have criticized the strikes as lacking congressional authorization.
What to watch for: further attacks affecting U.S. forces, and any diplomatic outreach to Iran’s successor leadership.
Israel
Israel, which regards Iran as an existential threat, has long sought to halt Tehran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs and to weaken Iranian-backed armed groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah. Israel launched retaliatory strikes in Lebanon after Hezbollah fired missiles across the border.
Israeli officials announced sustained strikes and at one point said as many as 100 fighter jets were targeting Tehran. Most incoming Iranian missiles and drones were intercepted, and civilians used shelters during the attacks. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, facing international criticism over the Gaza war, framed the strikes as a security success.
The risk remains from Iranian proxies, including Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who have threatened to resume attacks on Red Sea shipping and on Israel.
What to watch for: continued Israeli operations and attacks involving Iranian proxies.
The Middle East and beyond
The current fighting is already more intense than last year’s Israel-Iran confrontations, which ended after U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and a limited Iranian attack on a U.S. base in Qatar. This time, hundreds of Iranian missile and drone launches have affected Gulf countries that had previously been more insulated.
Dubai’s main airport reported disruptions as interceptor fire and other defenses affected operations; Saudi Arabia said it intercepted attacks and summoned Iran’s ambassador. Top diplomats from six Gulf states asserted their right to self-defense. Market reaction was immediate: oil prices jumped on fears of supply disruptions, particularly given attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global oil shipments. In response to supply concerns, eight OPEC+ members said they would raise crude output.
The International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors was scheduled to meet to consider the conflict’s impact and to seek details on Iran’s nuclear program.
What to watch for: oil-market volatility, updates on Iran’s nuclear activities from the IAEA, and diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict.
