New Delhi [India], February 6 (ANI): The Observer Research Foundation (ORF) has released its inaugural quarterly, “Navigating Megatrends for 2026,” examining six domains—geopolitics, defence and security; geoeconomics and trade; technology; climate and energy transitions; agriculture, health, and urbanization; and education, skills, labor, and immigration—that together map the major faultlines and forces shaping international politics and domestic change.
ORF scholars treat these megatrends as lived realities, arguing they do not unfold in isolation but are mediated by leadership, institutions, and ideas.
Geopolitics, Defence and Security — Turbulence Ahead
Dhruva Jaishankar, Executive Director of ORF America, with Pratnashree Basu, Kartik Bommakanti, Lindsey Ford, and Kabir Taneja, identify five major geopolitical megatrends likely to shape 2026 amid turbulence from the re-election of US President Donald Trump. They highlight impacts of Trump-era policies: high tariffs disrupting trade, US retrenchment from multilateral arrangements, and efforts to end conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza paired with reduced restraint in the use of force, including strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and operations in Latin America.
China and Russia are expected to deepen their “no limits” partnership through expanded technological and operational coordination, despite US attempts to engage them separately. This cooperation may take practical forms such as military-technical collaboration, broader joint exercises, and training exchanges that accelerate Chinese military modernization. Regional dynamics include Venezuela’s assertive claims over Guyana, alignments in Argentina and El Salvador with Trump-era positions, and Brazil and Peru strengthening economic ties with China. The global race for critical minerals is set to involve Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, and Peru. Alongside continuing conflicts in Ukraine, Africa, and the Middle East, the brief flags the Russia-China axis, growth of bilateral and minilateral arrangements, a more turbulent Latin America, competition in new technological domains and regions, and the reemergence of nuclear weapons as key trends to monitor.
Geoeconomics and Trade — A Year of Rebalancing
Anit Mukherjee, Dhruba Purkayastha, Arya Roy Bardhan, Srijan Shukla, and Jhanvi Tripathi argue that countries of the Global South with critical mineral reserves—such as Indonesia and Mexico—will leverage these resources for lower tariffs and greater investment in domestic processing and manufacturing, exploiting US-China geoeconomic competition. Tariff-driven dynamics are expected to boost South-South trade and focus attention on corridors and connecting infrastructure.
The paper warns Global South states to guard against a flood of imported Chinese manufactured goods by using industrial policies to protect jobs and domestic capacity. At the same time, geopolitical turmoil creates openings for the Global South to shape rebalanced globalization: how these countries respond to Washington and Beijing with their own geoeconomic initiatives in 2026 will influence the emerging global economic order.
Technology — Brave New World
Anirban Sarma, Sauradeep Bag, Anulekha Nandi, Prateek Tripathi, and Siddharth Yadav examine AI, quantum computing, digital currencies, and nanotechnology as frontiers where technology, power, and political economy converge. As US-China competition intensifies, countries will strengthen national AI capabilities, increasing pressure for global alignment and harmonization of AI policies. Two risks expected to escalate are the spread of AI-generated disinformation and the growing energy footprints of AI systems, pushing demand for sustainable, energy-efficient solutions.
Quantum computing should see more investment and a shift from pursuing qubit counts to finding practical applications and commercial availability. Digital currencies are likely to become more entrenched in certain regions, easing remittances and cross-border trade in parts of the Global South. Nanotechnology, including areas like spintronics, will begin to decisively shape future materials and attract targeted innovation and investment.
Climate and Energy Transitions
Mannat Jaspal, Parul Bakshi, Cauvery Ganapathy, Lydia Powell, and Piyush Verma argue that 2026 trends are intensifications of prior policy neglect across energy and climate realms. Themes such as energy sovereignty, securitized supply chains, and rising digital-era power demand will dominate discourse. For the Global South, balancing industrial competitiveness, affordability, and equity within contested climate architectures is crucial: navigating the tradeoffs between decarbonization and development will determine pace and outcomes.
Agriculture, Health, and Urbanization
Nilanjan Ghosh, Ramanath Jha, Oommen C. Kurian, Soma Sarkar, and Shoba Suri emphasize that agriculture, health, and urbanization follow interconnected and uncertain trajectories requiring systems thinking that acknowledges feedback loops, cascading risks, and interdependence across human, ecological, and economic systems. Demographic shifts and consumption patterns perpetuate cycles of demand and vulnerability, highlighting the Global South’s structural dilemma of mobilizing resources without creating dependency or asymmetry. Stronger Global South cooperation—propelled by post-COP30 momentum and India’s BRICS presidency in 2026—could pool knowledge, finance, and technology to advance resilient agriculture, equitable health systems, and sustainable urbanization.
Education, Skills, Labor, and Immigration
Sunaina Kumar, Soumya Bhowmick, Anasua Basu Ray Chaudhury, Arpan Tulsyan, and Manish Vaidya identify clearer trends for 2026: digital technology and AI will widen access and personalize education; Industry 4.0 will increase demand for advanced technical skills; platform work will expand, creating new jobs while underscoring the need for stronger worker protections; and South-South mobility will rise as climate stress, economic fragility, and conflict intensify. The authors call for reoriented national priorities and deeper regional cooperation to build shared frameworks that reflect the Global South’s diverse realities and aspirations.
ORF scholars say the Global Quarterly offers unique perspectives valuable to readers and policy analysts, outlining risks and opportunities to help understand, prepare for, and navigate the year ahead. (ANI)
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