Hong Kong, December 2 (ANI): China is expanding its nuclear-warhead arsenal at an unprecedented pace — the fastest build-up of nuclear weapons in history — yet Beijing has offered little clear explanation until recently.
A Pentagon report in late 2023 estimated 500 operational Chinese warheads, rising to more than 600 by late 2024, with forecasts of about 1,000 by 2030. On November 27, China issued a white paper, “China’s Arms Control, Disarmament, and Nonproliferation in the New Era” — its first such document in 20 years — but it leaves many questions unanswered.
The paper states that modernization of nuclear forces is to “safeguard China’s own strategic security and overall global strategic stability,” suggesting that expanding nuclear capabilities will make both China and the world safer. Tong Zhao, Senior Fellow at Carnegie China’s Nuclear Policy Program, noted Beijing’s argument that strengthening its military is framed as strengthening “the peaceful forces in the world,” tying global strategic stability to a more capable Chinese nuclear force.
China showcased missiles prominently at its September 3 Tiananmen Square military parade, displaying DF-61, DF-5C and DF-31BJ intercontinental ballistic missiles, JL-1 air-launched nuclear-tipped missiles, and JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Lyle Morris, Senior Fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis, said the white paper repeats historical positions and propaganda divorced from actions, but adds insights into Chinese nuclear policy worth attention.
The white paper portrays China as peace-loving and a contributor to global security, claiming the nation “has always cherished peace and harmony among nations.” Critics point to aggressive PLA and China Coast Guard behavior in the South China Sea, and Beijing’s dismissal of rulings like the Permanent Court of Arbitration decision that found its territorial claims unlawful.
Much of the document blames the United States. It warns that “a certain country seeks absolute strategic superiority by constantly expanding its armaments, strengthening combat readiness and provoking bloc confrontation,” accusing that country of strengthening alliances, exercising extended deterrence, and forward-deploying ground-based intermediate-range missiles. While the U.S. is believed to have only a battery of Typhon missiles in the Philippines in the Asia-Pacific, China has rapidly expanded its own missile forces: the Pentagon estimates some 500 DF-26 and DF-27 intermediate-range ballistic missiles, and Beijing unveiled a DF-26D variant at the parade.
Zhao flagged hypocrisy: China denounces some states’ INF-range missile deployments while claiming a legitimate need to “modestly” build its own forces, which many would not describe as modest. China has largely refused U.S. approaches for arms-control talks, yet blames U.S. withdrawals from treaties — including the Open Skies Treaty, the failure to extend New START, and the INF Treaty — without acknowledging that Russia was violating some accords and that China refused to join.
Zhao warned China underestimates the risk of a nuclear arms race and the importance of transparency and restraint. He said if Washington expands its arsenal, Chinese experts are unlikely to dismiss it as insignificant, and both nations risk entering a nuclear arms race knowingly. The white paper conditions further arms-control engagement on the U.S. abandoning an “aggressive nuclear deterrent policy based on first use” and ceasing what China terms a “hypocritical policy of inciting confrontation and creating crisis.”
While China’s stockpile remains far smaller than those of the U.S. and Russia, Beijing urged the largest nuclear-armed states to take primary responsibility for disarmament and make verifiable, irreversible reductions. The paper also claims China has ratified or signed over 20 multilateral arms-control treaties and “strictly complies with their obligations.” Yet the document simultaneously notes that “global nuclear strategic rivalries are becoming more intense and complex, and the risk of a nuclear arms race is growing,” even as China expands its own arsenal and states it has long advocated for the prohibition and destruction of nuclear weapons.
Jeffrey Lewis, Distinguished Scholar of Global Security at Middlebury College, said the white paper “contains a strong and clear endorsement of China’s no-first use policy.” The document reiterates that “China has always remained committed to the principle of no-first-use of nuclear weapons at any time and under any circumstances,” and undertakes not to use or threaten nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states or nuclear-weapon-free zones.
Zhao observed the paper leans heavily on no-first-use (NFU). He argued China has no military need to drop NFU; instead, growing conventional strength supports a strategy of prevailing conventionally while deterring U.S. nuclear escalation. Beijing portrays its nuclear forces as defensive, ensuring a secure second-strike capability.
The white paper claims China offers the most stable, consistent and predictable nuclear policy among nuclear-weapon states and promises it “never engages in any form of arms race.” Critics point to rapid arsenal growth under Xi Jinping, improvements in early warning, command-and-control, missile penetration, rapid response and survivability, and Beijing’s failure to criticize Russia’s nuclear threats over Ukraine, suggesting a gap between rhetoric and action.
Beijing also argues that differences among nuclear states in forces, policies and security environments mean universally applicable risk-reduction measures are infeasible — effectively asking for different rules for China. It noted notifying some countries of its September 2024 ICBM firing into the South Pacific, an event that provoked regional outrage.
The white paper condemns AUKUS — the U.S.-UK-Australia security partnership — accusing it of undermining the Non-Proliferation Treaty by transferring naval nuclear propulsion reactors and weapons-grade highly enriched uranium to a non-nuclear-weapon state. Critics see double standards: China views such transfers as contrary to the NPT while itself maintaining nuclear-powered and nuclear-armed submarines. Beijing also stayed silent on North Korea’s submarine nuclear ambitions; by omitting denuclearization from its Korea Peninsula security discussion, the paper signals tacit acceptance of a nuclear North Korea, weakening China’s denuclearization stance.
China criticized U.S. missile defense efforts — calling the “Golden Dome” global missile defense and the pursuit of space weapons threatening — even as China develops missile defenses and militarizes space.
The white paper frames China as a responsible actor and force for good that builds military strength without engaging in an arms race, insisting a stronger Chinese military adds to global peace. But observers note China criticizes modest defense increases by others while justifying its own large spending increases.
The document concludes, “No matter how the world changes, China stands firmly on the right side of history and on the side of human progress, and serves as a staunch force for upholding world peace and security.” Morris summarized: the white paper lists China’s rhetorical advocacy for abolition of nuclear weapons, but ignores the stark reality that China is pursuing the largest peacetime nuclear breakout in history with little transparency — a fact that undermines its stated principled stance on arms control. He warned that continuing to blame the U.S. alone is no longer an adequate explanation for such a buildup. (ANI)
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